ConsumerTechBets
@optionsly
High Growth US Consumer Tech. Previously at 3 midcap public tech cos. Voting and weighing stocks. raw thoughts. dms open.
railway and fiber capex buildouts were implicitly underwriting 20 year+ useful life spans. GPUs with 5 year spans (or less) hilariously makes AI capex spend more durable
Pain trade is we invent AGI assets go up 10x: housing, stocks, gold, btc you lose your job & income your intellect is worthless UBI servitude (assuming we don't all die - ok that's actually worst case scenario)
"rising tide carries all boats" happening for AI and speculative stocks. lots of trash will fall hard if AI fails but I don't think AI leaders fall much if speculative frenzy softens. There's a good pair trade in here where you can just long AI and short trash. (smartly)
also why the entire "the current P/E is 15% above historic averages" or whatever is irrelevant. dude big tech is convinced we're gonna summon god in next decade
I'm convinced the entire market is dependent on AI. If AI development stalls: all semi/energy stocks fall. we'll see a compression in all "optimistic stocks" including robots, space, hardtech etc that downward momentum will pull down crypto, indexes, memes everything.
Word on the street is GPT 5 in next 1-2 weeks. if good we go higher
If we get AGI in 5-ish years; extreme things will happen in the markets. not sure market internalized probability is almost 50%?
If we get AGI in 5-ish years; extreme things will happen in the markets. not sure market internalized probability is almost 50%?
Every real world indicator will consistently look terrible Boomers will think we're in a perpetual recession Yet tech profits will keep going up It's going to confuse so many
Every day I see studies on how Gen Z is drinking less, smoking less, having less sex etc. This is because they're doing everything less. Their entire existence is on their phones. Escapism to the nth degree. This is beyond bad.