Timothy Peterson
@nsquaredvalue
Bitcoin Pathfinder | Network Economist Author of "Metcalfe's Law as a Model for #Bitcoin's ₿ Value" & "The Debauchery of Currency: a Bloody History of #Money"
#bitcoin is the first money that requires no physical space to store it, no courier to carry it, no bookkeeper to count it, no auditor to check on it, no security guard to protect it, and no government to issue it.
Earlier this year, Trump signed two executive orders. The first rescinds all IRS guidance on crypto/bitcoin, the second explicitly states that only POTUS or the Atty General can interpret the laws of the United States regarding enforcement. So long as these orders are in…
Bitcoin in July
The Bitcoin Bastille Day Rally The Bitcoin Bastille Day Rally is just one week away. Historically, in years where Bitcoin underperforms (as it has this year), Bitcoin rallies, and this rally begins on July 14 - Bastille day. In the second week of July Bitcoin makes up this…
Bitcoin ETF inflows are positive for 7 consecutive weeks. They have never been positive for 8 consecutive weeks.
Based solely on the 2-year trend, it's very difficult for Bitcoin to fall below $100,000
Bitcoin 2026 is on sale! 30% off! cane-island.digital
Today's drop puts Bitcoin right on the median line for July in similar years. Using this historical data, I was able to do a Monte Carlo forecast for the remaining week.
Bitcoin in July
Since 1990, inflation has averaged 2.7%, well above the 2.0% target. In fact, the @federalreserve meets its 2.0% target fewer than 3 years out of 10. The idea that the Fed can control inflation is probably more myth than fact.
US inflation is reported today as 2.7%. Since 1990, what is the average annual inflation rate?
Bitcoin ETF inflows show institutions ‘doubled down’ on BTC at $116K cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-e…
$VIX at 15 and falling.
Understanding $VIX The CBOE Volatility Index, aka "fear index," measures expected stock market volatility over the next 30 days based on S&P 500 options pricing. It serves as both a sentiment gauge and a contrarian indicator.
Gold's performance in the second half of the year is a reflection of its performance in the first half. This year, gold is up 30%. There is a 95% chance that gold will gain an additional 10-20%, finishing December between $3800 - $4100.
The Bitcoin Analog. I've added a third chart which has 95% ranges and is scaled to dollars.
I have been monitoring NASDAQ against these historical analogs since April. Look how closely it tracks! History repeats.
#QED The next ATH after March 15th was May 20th.
Bitcoin is trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range. Nearly all of Bitcoin's annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October. It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June.
The 2013, 2017, and 2021 moonshot bull runs all started on July 16th. Bitcoin
I have been monitoring NASDAQ against these historical analogs since April. Look how closely it tracks! History repeats.
There is no need for any individual taxation, including capital gains. x.com/nsquaredvalue/…
A capital gains tax is an extremely unfair tax to investors, let me explain why. It’s basically a tax on inflation. Think about it: when you receive income from a job, that money is in current dollars. When you get rental income or royalties, it’s in current dollars. But with…