Nick HK
@nickchk
Econ prof @SeattleU. Book The Effect http://theeffectbook.net out now! Check my pinned thread for all my projects. Substack https://nickchk.substack.com/
This is a thread of me QTing myself so I can pin all my posted-on-Twitter projects. Causal inference animated graphs:
As requested, slower graphs! Also added a graph on collider bias, the webpage explanation helps there. These graphs are intended to show what standard causal inference methods actually *do* to data, and how they work. This is what controlling for a binary variable looks like:
The second edition of The Effect is now available for preorder! This version has a whole new chapter on Partial Identification, a considerable update on staggered treatment and control variables in DID, and zillions of other little updates throughout. routledge.com/The-Effect-An-…
Causal Inference in Econometrics with @nickchk is now on demand! Join March 31-April. 28 to learn the how & why of econometric analysis of observational data using regression (how econometricians evaluate data) & identification (how they link theory to data) at your own pace.
The working paper for the Many-Economists project, which got a lot of juice from this very platform, is available! The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics looks into researcher degrees of freedom and tries to isolate which ones are important. Data cleaning!
The Many-Economists project with @nickchk, The Sources of Researchers Variation in Economics, is now on SSRN. We had 146 teams perform the same research task three times, each with less freedom, to explore what drives differences across researchers. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
GPT-o1 has some improved performance on this task but still in the end fails it. Details: bsky.app/profile/nickch…
I recognize that "let's see what GPT can do" and "does it have an internal understanding" posts are very old hat, but I have what I think is a very interesting case, at least to a certain niche of people: Three Card Blind (3CB)