Nataliya Bugayova
@nataliabugayova
Non-resident Fellow & fmr Russia Research Team Lead @TheStudyofWar | Views are my own.
Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. My latest ISW essay lnkd.in/eCFMMwks on the lessons from the Minsk II deal that aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but led to the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. The US must learn from the…
The Trump Administration has a historic opportunity to break Russia’s cycle of overt war and war through “peace” in Ukraine. To do so, the United States must learn the lessons from the Minsk deal: 1. Russia will seek to transfer the responsibility and cost for its war onto…
NEW: Russia is training Ukrainian children to become drone operators for future service in the Russian military or employment in the Russian defense industrial base. Additional Key Takeaways: Russian occupation officials are using the threat of disconnecting residents of…
The target of Russian cognitive warfare is the opponent's will to act. To achieve more, Russia needs others to do less. The Kremlin seeks to condition the US to choose inaction when it comes to Russia. Russia may very well lose if the West leans in to support Ukraine. The…
NEW | A Primer on Russian Cognitive Warfare, by @nataliabugayova and @KatStepanenko Key Takeaways + Full Report⬇️(1/2) Understanding cognitive warfare is a national security requirement for the United States. Russia is a key player in the cognitive warfare space and a model…
Mali's Russian allies are both ineffective AND obscenely racist. @jeune_afrique found Russian soldiers calling their Malian partners "coal" or the n-word and bragging about beheading & torturing Africans⬇️ Don't think this fits Africa's desire for mutually respectful partners.
NEW | Malian junta leader Assimi Goïta met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23. The visit comes amid a spiraling security situation in Mali and across the Sahel that undermines Russia's credibility as an effective partner.🧵
It's the second anniversary of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny & the Kremlin is trying to prevent another mutiny by raising a veterans-based elite. Putin, however, may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to his regime stability by emboldening veterans.🧵
The Kremlin may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to Putin’s regime stability by emboldening veterans who may use their influence to advance their personal, financial, or political ambitions at the expense of the regime. A 🧵on @TheStudyofWar's latest report.