MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
Using expected outcomes to simulate previous MLB games, inspired by @MoneyPuckdotcom. Code can be found in GitHub (link below). Created by @DerekGrifka
The purpose of this account is to analyze how game outcomes can change, depending on when a hit occurred. For example, if a team hit well, but struggled to string together hits. We're essentially determining a team's "luck" factor by how their hits were dispersed in a game
⚾ Daily MLB Update: July 26, 2025 1️⃣ Playoff % 2️⃣ Team Strength 3️⃣ AL Rooting Guide 4️⃣ NL Rooting Guide #MLB #Baseball




⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 07/25/2025 1️⃣ Most Expected Bases 2️⃣ Least Expected Bases 3️⃣ Luckiest Hits 4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs #MLB #Baseball #Statcast




⚾ Mets @ Giants 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Mets 8 - 1 Giants 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Mets 88% - 5% Giants (Tie 6%) #MLB #Statcast #Mets #Giants #LGM #SFGiants



🚨 Angels are luck merchants! 🚨 ⚾ Mariners @ Angels 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Mariners 2 - 3 Angels 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Mariners 92% - 3% Angels (Tie 5%) #MLB #Statcast #Mariners #Angels #TridentsUp #RepTheHalo



⚾ Athletics @ Astros 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Athletics 15 - 3 Astros 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Athletics 99% - 0% Astros (Tie 1%) #MLB #Statcast #Athletics #Astros #BuiltForThis



🚨 Rangers are luck merchants! 🚨 ⚾ Braves @ Rangers 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Braves 3 - 8 Rangers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Braves 66% - 23% Rangers (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #Braves #Rangers #BravesCountry #AllForTX



⚾ Cubs @ White Sox 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Cubs 5 - 12 White Sox 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 14% - 79% White Sox (Tie 7%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #WhiteSox #BeHereForit



⚾ Nationals @ Twins 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Nationals 0 - 1 Twins 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Nationals 30% - 54% Twins (Tie 17%) #MLB #Statcast #Nationals #Twins #Natitude #MNTwins



⚾ Phillies @ Yankees 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Phillies 12 - 5 Yankees 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Phillies 90% - 5% Yankees (Tie 5%) #MLB #Statcast #Phillies #Yankees #RingTheBell #RepBX



⚾ Rays @ Reds 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Rays 2 - 7 Reds 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Rays 16% - 73% Reds (Tie 11%) #MLB #Statcast #Rays #Reds #RaysUp #ATOBTTR



⚾ Dodgers @ Red Sox 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Dodgers 5 - 2 Red Sox 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 85% - 8% Red Sox (Tie 8%) #MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #RedSox #LetsGoDodgers #DirtyWater



⚾ Blue Jays @ Tigers 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 6 - 2 Tigers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 85% - 6% Tigers (Tie 9%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Tigers #LightsUpLetsGo #RepDetroit



🚨 Rockies are luck merchants! 🚨 ⚾ Rockies @ Orioles 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Rockies 6 - 5 Orioles 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Rockies 9% - 84% Orioles (Tie 7%) #MLB #Statcast #Rockies #Orioles #Birdland



🚨 Cardinals are luck merchants! 🚨 ⚾ Padres @ Cardinals 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Padres 0 - 3 Cardinals 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Padres 65% - 19% Cardinals (Tie 16%) #MLB #Statcast #Padres #Cardinals #ForTheFaithful #STLCards #ForTheLou



⚾ D-backs @ Pirates 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: D-backs 1 - 0 Pirates 📊 Deserve-to-Win: D-backs 36% - 30% Pirates (Tie 34%) #MLB #Statcast #Dbacks #Pirates #LetsGoBucs



⚾ Marlins @ Brewers 🏟️ 07/25/2025 Final Score: Marlins 5 - 1 Brewers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Marlins 75% - 16% Brewers (Tie 9%) #MLB #Statcast #Marlins #Brewers #MarlinsBeisbol #ThisIsMyCrew



⚾ Daily MLB Update: July 25, 2025 1️⃣ Playoff % 2️⃣ Team Strength 3️⃣ AL Rooting Guide 4️⃣ NL Rooting Guide #MLB #Baseball




⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 07/24/2025 1️⃣ Most Expected Bases 2️⃣ Least Expected Bases 3️⃣ Luckiest Hits 4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs #MLB #Baseball #Statcast




⚾ Mariners @ Angels 🏟️ 07/24/2025 Final Score: Mariners 4 - 2 Angels 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Mariners 42% - 44% Angels (Tie 14%) #MLB #Statcast #Mariners #Angels #TridentsUp #RepTheHalo



⚾ Athletics @ Astros 🏟️ 07/24/2025 Final Score: Athletics 5 - 2 Astros 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Athletics 70% - 17% Astros (Tie 13%) #MLB #Statcast #Athletics #Astros #BuiltForThis


