Metaculus
@metaculus
Metaculus is a forecasting platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. News & Announcements: https://www.metaculus.com/news/
Freaking great analysis by Ben Wilson on our AI Benchmark tournament (bots versus pros versus community prediction). Check it out. Analysis code is public AND we have a data exploration site: q1-2025-aib-analysis.streamlit.app
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Dimensionalizing Forecast Value Forecasts help us decide under uncertainty, but which questions are worth answering? Metaculus advisor Jordan Rubin on the main drivers of the value of information: Clarity Forecasting can help me make a decision when I don’t know what to do.…
Metaculus's @celloMolly speaking soon on prediction markets - Join for the AMA @ 10am EST: x.com/i/spaces/1YqKD…
Join us this Thursday, June 26, at 10 a.m. EST for a fresh AMA session, "Prediction Markets Supercycle", now with new speakers joining the lineup! x.com/i/spaces/1YqKD… Speakers: Clément Lesaege (@clesaege), CTO at @seer_pm/@Kleros_io Kelvin Azevedo Santos (@azsantosk), CEO…
Bet: @GaryMarcus and I have a bet on which car company will have operate in more cities. @Waymo or @Tesla. He's for Waymo, I'm for Tesla, $200 each way, for charity.
By the end of 2026, who will lead in US cities (pop. >100k) with >100k paid robotaxi rides per month: @Waymo or @Tesla? Waymo is currently ahead. @GaryMarcus says they'll stay ahead. @NathanpmYoung says Tesla will overtake them. They took the honorable route and bet on their…
Good news: Professional forecasters are still strongly outperforming the bots
I'm excited to be speaking at this tomorrow. Tune in! Thanks for the invitation @mpost_io!
Join us this Thursday, June 26, at 10 a.m. EST for a fresh AMA session, "Prediction Markets Supercycle", now with new speakers joining the lineup! x.com/i/spaces/1YqKD… Speakers: Clément Lesaege (@clesaege), CTO at @seer_pm/@Kleros_io Kelvin Azevedo Santos (@azsantosk), CEO…
It is very funny that no one can beat the @metaculus template bot. We all think we're so clever, but we're only making it worse.
.@tone_row_ and I entered halfway through this quarter's @metaculus bot tournament, accidentally forecasted that a film would make $80 (not $80M) and we're still in 27th place! Lots of work to do, but I'm still proud.
Will Israel-Iran direct conflict claim 1,000+ lives this year? 1,177 forecasters now at 11% - up 4 points this week. Predict here: metaculus.com/questions/3129…
Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, and the AI Futures team wrote AI 2027, a detailed scenario predicting an intelligence explosion and US-China AI arms race. How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/ai-…
New forecasts compiled by @GiveWell project that US health aid funding will be ~50% lower in 2025-2027 compared to 2024 (range of ~15%-80%). Includes input from external experts, Superforecasters, @GiveWell staff, @metaculus, and @CGDev. x.com/albrgr/status/…
New preprint finding that eliminating US global health funding over the next fifteen years would cause: - 15.2m deaths from AIDS - 2.2m deaths from TB - 7.9 additional child deaths
• Will habeas corpus be suspended? • Will courts hold part of the executive branch in contempt for defying SCOTUS? Forecast on 10 new questions in our $15,000 POTUS Predictions tournament, with contributions from @BrightLineWatch. Start predicting: metaculus.com/tournament/POT…
AI forecasting capabilities are advancing fast, but top human forecasters still lead. Great context from @dylanmatt: vox.com/future-perfect…
Compete in the Metaculus Cup 🏆 • $5,000 prize pool for accurate predictions & high-quality comments that convince others • Level up your forecasting skills • Build your reputation • New topical questions each week Get started: metaculus.com/tournament/met…
