Lakshya Jain

It's here — our 2024 Wins-Above-Replacement models at @SplitTicket_. We'll have much more to say soon on many different underlying aspects of the data, but here's an initial breakdown. split-ticket.org/2025/01/15/our…

New CBS poll has Trump approval at 42% approve to 58% disapprove Big reason is a pretty brutal number on inflation Dems learned the hard way how much frustration with inflation hurts politically Hard to spin economy when voters have to deal with prices everyday at supermarket

Yes. Writing is not a second thing that happens after thinking. The act of writing is an act of thinking. Writing *is* thinking. Students, academics, and anyone else who outsources their writing to LLMs will find their screens full of words and their minds emptied of thought.

Israel is a rich country that doesn’t need American aid. America is far from the Middle East with limited resources there and doesn’t need to be telling Israel what to do. It’s past time for a more normal relationship. slowboring.com/p/america-shou…

Who does this convince when you target one of the most pro-Palestinian lawmakers in the entire Congress? What are these people trying to accomplish?

Immensely annoying that journalists are completely innumerate, something nimby environmentalists use all the time once again data center water is used to cool down servers and then is put back in the environment

Of all of these states, though, the only one in which you could make a credible argument that the redraw is >50% to succeed in is California. (I wouldn’t make this argument, but I have had it made to me and I do get it). Others are closer to pipe dreams.

New blog post! "There is a silent majority in America" Once again I'm looking at this awesome high-response rate mail survey the NYT ran in 2022 and what it says about the actual shape of the electorate. The silent majority is real and it's distrustful moderates. Link below!

What an absolutely ludicrous & disgusting statement. She didn’t “give up her fight for life,” she was a four-year-old child that was starved to death with the full backing and support of the so called “civilized world.” Obfuscating the responsible parties is atrocity denial.

The impulse persisted after algorithmic changes or whatever else shifted the incentives, but that’s in part because we had a whole cohort of young writers where the ones who churned out takes like “the racist origins of breakfast” or whatever were the most successful.

🚨 We are honored to endorse @RebeccaforWI for Congress. In 2024, Cooke nearly flipped Wisconsin's 3rd. This cycle, she can and will win. It's time to rally around Rebecca and get her across the finish line. welcomestack.org/p/the-rebecca-…

“Months later, when Mr. Trump hosted a party at Mar-a-Lago for young women in a so-called calendar girl competition, Mr. Epstein was the only other guest” nytimes.com/2025/07/19/us/…

I will repeat that many lawmakers treating social media as their primary sphere of feedback has done an immense amount of harm to the country, because the average top reply here is from someone 3 standard deviations more insane than the rest of society.

I didn't realize Gretchen Whitmer still hasn't called a special election for Michigan Senate District 35, which was vacated by Kristen McDonald Rivet in January. Given Dem success in legislative specials, there's not much doubt Dems would easily hold the seat.