Liam Karr

@liam_karr

Africa Team Lead for @criticalthreats. Focus on political and security dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa. Opinions are my own. RTs, follows, likes ≠ endorsements.

Washington, D.C.

Joined January 2022

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jun 13

Tuareg rebels ambushed a Russian convoy in Mali this morning. Videos show several Russian casualties. Such attacks damage Russian prestige and could cause domestic blowback now that the Kremlin is more overtly involved after swapping Wagner for the MOD-backed Africa Corps. 🧵

CCritical Threats@criticalthreats · Jun 12

NEW | The Wagner Group withdrew from Mali as the Kremlin transitions control of military operations in Africa to the Ministry of Defense–backed Africa Corps. The shift to more overt state involvement creates risks for the Kremlin, which may lead Russia to adapt its engagement.🧵

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jul 18

The US-Africa Summit & DRC-Rwanda peace deal highlight opportunities for Trump's transactional Africa policy. But US-Africa relations don't exist in a vacuum, and Trump's goals are clashing with his immigration & tariff policies. My latest in @thehill: thehill.com/opinion/intern…

liam_karr's tweet card. Amid the many opportunities to pursue peace, power and prosperity in Africa, there are clear tension points with Trump’s “America First” domestic agenda.

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Liam Karr Retweeted

Critical Threats@criticalthreats · Jul 17

The US-brokered peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda could lead to historic US investment in critical minerals in the region and reduce violence in the DRC. More from CTP's .@liam_karr and .@yale0214: thehill.com/opinion/intern… criticalthreats.org/analysis/us-dr…

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Critical Threats@criticalthreats · Jul 25

With the United States looking to restart its peace efforts in Sudan, @liam_karr writes that the US has an opportunity to secure a key security objective and humanitarian victory. The conflict has created opportunities for Iran and Russia to expand their influence in the…

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Liam Karr Retweeted

Critical Threats@criticalthreats · Jul 24

The Kremlin seeks to supplant the West in Africa to position itself as a great power and global force. More to come from CTP's @liam_karr ⬇️

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jul 21

NEW | RSF activity across western Sudan—particularly el Fasher—likely constitutes war crimes, including crimes against humanity, acts of ethnic cleansing, and possible genocide. 1/6

CCritical Threats@criticalthreats · Jul 18

NEW | The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are escalating their war of attrition for key positions in strategic regions in the western half of Sudan.⬇️1/5

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jul 18

NEW | The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are escalating their war of attrition for key positions in strategic regions in the western half of Sudan.⬇️1/5

CCritical Threats@criticalthreats · Jul 17

NEW | The Kremlin will likely capitalize on recent US cuts to media funding in Africa as Russia continues to expand its media presence on the continent. Russia’s media ecosystem in Africa supports Russia’s strategic effort to supplant the United States & its allies in Africa. 🧵

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jul 14

NEW | Al Shabaab recaptured another district capital in central Somalia and is threatening to expand its control beyond the pre-2022 status quo. Al Shabaab’s gains are a strategic setback and set conditions for the group to increase pressure along the Ethiopian border. 🧵

CCritical Threats@criticalthreats · Jul 11

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels and the Congolese army (FARDC) have both reportedly reinforced their positions in South Kivu since early July. Renewed fighting could derail already-struggling Qatari-mediated peace efforts between the DRC and M23, which would undermine the…

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Liam Karr Retweeted

Critical Threats@criticalthreats · Jul 10

NEW | US President Donald Trump is holding the first US-Africa summit of his second term with leaders from five coastal West African countries. 🇬🇦🇬🇼🇱🇷🇲🇷🇸🇳 The summit is an opportunity to address Chinese influence, the Sahelian Salafi-jihadi insurgency, and critical minerals. 🧵

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jul 8

Great insights here from @_hudsonc. Trump's disruptive and transactional approach has potential, but it needs to be squared as part of a more coherent strategy. The travel ban and AGOA killing (tariffs), in particular, could derail the "trade not aid" reset the admin wants.

CCSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy@CSISGeopolitics · Jul 8

CSIS Africa's @_hudsonc has released a new analysis: As the mini-Africa Summit kicks off tomorrow, many hope for clarity on how the U.S. views Africa’s potential. So far, the “America First” policy has lowered expectations across the continent. Read: buff.ly/pVldIUb

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Liam Karr Retweeted

Critical Threats@criticalthreats · Jul 3

NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM launched a series of simultaneous attacks across Mali on July 1. The operation was a tactical defeat but could have strategic benefits for the group by contradicting the Malian junta’s narrative that the security situation is improving.🧵

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jul 2

JNIM's attacks in Mali yday are a bit Tet Offensive-esque. Seemingly a tactical defeat, but could generate strategic benefits by undermining the junta's narrative that security is improving. Hard to say w/ the Malian information space & junta's popular support in southern Mali.

RRFI Afrique@RFIAfrique · Jul 2

Mali: précisions et interrogations sur les sept attaques menées par le Jnim de Kayes à Niono rfi.my/BoAW.x

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jul 1

The US-mediated peace deal between the DRC & Rwanda will likely limit the scale of violence in the eastern DRC in the short term. The deal's long-term success is likely contingent on Qatari-mediated talks involving M23, however, and a broader, comprehensive peace framework. 🧵

CCritical Threats@criticalthreats · Jun 27

The United States brokered a major peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. The deal is a strong first step to peace, but as all parties note, this is the beginning—not the end—of a still-unfinished, comprehensive peace framework. Read more from CTP's experts ⬇️

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jun 27

DDepartment of State@StateDept · Jun 27

.@SecRubio at the signing of the Democratic Republic of Congo-Rwanda Peace Agreement: “the Department of State is really the department of peace. It’s designed to bring people together.”

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Liam Karr Retweeted

Paweł Wójcik 🦋@SaladinAlDronni · Jun 25

"White Uncles in Africa 18+", a Russian Wagner turned Africa Corps Telegram channel. French journalists successfully infiltrated it and showed the findings. Racism,neo-nazism,openly displayed photos and videos of Russian crimes against the Mali population. rfi.fr/fr/afrique/202…

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Liam Karr@liam_karr · Jun 20

NEW | Al Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate—JNIM—has likely operationalized rear support zones in northwestern Nigeria. It has likely used these havens to open a second front in Benin and could use them to support attacks in Nigeria. 🧵

CCritical Threats@criticalthreats · Jun 19

NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces accused the Libyan National Army (LNA) of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) near the Egypt-Libya-Sudan border, further heightening the risk of regional spillover. The United Arab Emirates backs the LNA & RSF. More from the Africa File⬇️

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