Joseph Brusuelas

Thanks to the good folks ⁦@CBSNews⁩ ⁦@CBSMoneyWatch⁩ ⁦& ⁦@johndickerson⁩ for the opportunity to discuss the condition of the US economy, inflation and the appreciation of the dollar.

For those in denial about trade, tariffs & corporate profit margins please read on. Remember that those advocating tariffs think they are helping to automakers: General Motors’ net income shrank 35% in the second quarter despite strong sales gains. wsj.com/business/autos…

Good morning. Eroding the independence & credibility of the Federal Reserve is a path towards higher inflation, interest rates & inflation expectations: Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen: The Fed Must Be Independent nytimes.com/2025/07/21/opi… via @NYTOpinion

My Opinion note via ⁦⁦@MarketWatch⁩ ⁦@MKTWeconomics⁩ Stock-market complacency is on a collision course with tariffs. Investors, buckle up. - MarketWatch marketwatch.com/story/stock-ma…

US Business Inventories: following an extraordinary pulling forward of demand into Q1’25 to avoid tariffs American businesses inventories saw no increase for the second straight month in May. That means zero for the first two months of Q2. Yes, shipping increased in June, but…

One of the reason why price increase have been restrained is inventory accumulation in the Q1’25. Here is a look at where industry inventories are ahead of the 7/30 US 2Q’25 GDP. Source: The Real Economy Blog share.google/rjG9ZlmkziruaT…

So very cool.

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. It’s a long 162.

On the Japan so called deal (diktat?). Trump can win many fights, but one thing he cannot do is win fights against accounting identities. Trade deals, whatever they do, cannot, as claimed, simultaneously reduce the US current account deficit, and increase net capital flows to the…

Greer says the trade deficit caused the loss of 5 million manufacturing jobs. Perhaps someone at USTR will reply to this thread and explain this, since the U.S. manufacturing unemployment rate has trended down regardless of the trade balance ever since NAFTA/WTO/etc. (Aside from…

Good morning. A look at dollar depreciation & inflation via the import channel. Source: The Real Economy Blog share.google/g0matt3jtaHkZg…

Good morning. A look at dollar depreciation & inflation via the import channel. Source: The Real Economy Blog share.google/XAT9zeUBH5hNLB…

The false promise of a shadow Fed Chair: the problem is that you just don’t get one you get many. It erodes the credibility & independence of the central bank. It’s a good way to risk losing control of inflation expectations, the long end of the curve which would send rates…

“For now, look, we’ve got a resilient economy, it’s absorbing the blows from the rising inflation that’s just started to show up,” RSM chief economist @joebrusuelas says.

Please join me on @YahooFinance at 3Pm ET to discuss the day in financial markets & economics. @joshuahlipton

Fed Rate Cut Probabilities: probability of a September rate down to 53.8%, October 52.6% & December 67.7%. I expect Q2’25 GDP to increase by 2.5%-final sales to domestic private purchasers will be much slower-when it’s published on July 30. The US economy is at full…

Good news for the economy. Solid June retail sales. Excluding furniture & electronics-two areas where tariff induced prices are likely discouraging consumption- spending was fairly solid to strong elsewhere. Firms pulled forward inventory to avoid tariffs for a reason and…