Jeff Dorman
@jdorman81
CIO @arca - digital assets investing | Former COO of Harvest Exchange | Former Lehman, Merrill, Citadel | Huge Cleveland Sports Fan | CFA charterholder
There are a few Crypto hills that I will die on. I've been writing about these topics, and debating people for years. Today I'm laying them all out in one place. I will happily debate any of these topics with anyone at anytime. A thread👇
The $PUMP sloppiness is how a token launch should go. Previously, exchange direct listings with unnecessary VC lockups caused pump & dumps. But IPOs (& now ICOs) have a lot of volatility in the early days until a buyer base is established See $RDDT, $CRWV, & even $META IPOs.
this is how free markets should work. No lockups. Sell whenever you want. Price doesn’t artificially skyrocket and then dump. But if you get tagged as a “flipper” (always selling new deals right away) then you stop getting allocations over time
actually first impressions really matter, If a team can’t or won’t defend its launch price, they risk losing momentum to the next shiny memecoin. Maybe the bigger lesson is teams should plan the post-launch game as much as the pre-launch hype. Who wants to ape into a bag with no…
The real issue is that most crypto "investors" don't even understand they should expect this kind of support. Everyone just accepts that tokens dump 80% post-launch as normal. If teams actually started acting like real issuers with proper market making, it might change how…
Crypto investors will learn that as price goes down (P) & revenues go up (E), valuation gets cheaper (P/E down). Stocks always go up b/c earnings always go up. CF-producing apps like $HYPE, $PUMP, $RAY $AERO etc are more like stocks, & will trade differently than L1 "cycles"
Even cheaper when you realize FDV is a pointless metric for an amortizing (buyback) token The right O/S supply is closer to 606mm tokens, which puts adjusted mkt cap at $27 bn (@ $45 $HYPE) = 13.5x P/E Silly szn making people forget that good assets w/ strong CFs go up forever
$HYPE is starting to look a little undervalued even when you use FDV (even though full supply will never be circulating) ~$2B annualized revenue at $45B FDV is a 22.5 P/E The NASDAQ P/E average is ~35 Fair value using these conservative metrics would be ~$70
In order for OpenAI to scale, it needs Coreweave. In order for Coreweave to scale, it needs Core Scientific and Galaxy. OpenAI is worth $300B. Coreweave is worth $24B. Core Scientific is worth $2.4B. This is not hard. Follow the money, do the math, place your bets, and prosper
Joined crypto in 2016, & have always thought revenue matters most. It always has, it always will. A token’s value has always been at least partially based on fundamentals… it took 300 yrs for investors to figure that out with stocks. Only took a decade in a crypto.
You can instantly identify somebody who joined crypto after 2021 - because they think chains are companies with revenue and token value arising from extracting a take rate. You can easily tell somebody who joined crypto before 2021 - because they think protocols are open…
this is how free markets should work. No lockups. Sell whenever you want. Price doesn’t artificially skyrocket and then dump. But if you get tagged as a “flipper” (always selling new deals right away) then you stop getting allocations over time
The two top funds who invested $100M and $50M into $PUMP have sold a total of 16B PUMP ($86.4M) over the last 2 days, which equals 1.6% of the total supply and 4.6% of the current circulating supply. They are still holding 16B PUMP ($84M) and 3B PUMP ($15.8M), respectively.…
Fast trades mean nothing if settlement lags. @Lynq_Network fixes that — real-time, interest-bearing settlement for institutions. bit.ly/44Rl2Y7 #Lynq #SettlementReimagined #DigitalMarkets