Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️)
@infraa_
capital market enthusiast | macro nerd | futures and options trader | 1 lot ZB! vigilante | "when money isn't scarce, everything else is"
The Global Reserve Currency Curse: “Dollar Dutch Disease" and the Hollowing Out of America One of the very interesting developments in the past few days is the nomination of JD Vance- a guy from a dirt poor Appalachian town in the Rust Belt. An eyewitness to decades of…




A little post on 'real rates' and how they will inflate the debt away: Because of the fiscal picture, the US now requires negative real rates. The real rate of return (in reference to treasuries) refers to the spread between the yield on a bond, and inflation So, a 4.5% 10yr…
One of the major consequences of the K-shaped economy, seen here The upper leg of the K, obscenely wealthy, has been able to prop up home prices through cash buys Exactly as I predicted 3/2024: "Now to answer the question of who will buy- Simple- it will be the rich, like it…
Why Home Affordability is so Bad… …and why it’ll likely get worse YouTube.com/@economicsunma…
Boomers really have no clue The avg zoomer male is gonna make Stephen Miller look like a moderate Default on the social contract, you reap what you sow
New - Gen Z Party poll (Man) 🔴 Republican - 52% (+18) 🔵 Democrats 34% Pew research
LET THEM PLAY WITH TWO DOLLS US overconsumption has been funded via one thing: debt Our balance of trade=negative, for decades Our fiscal deficit=negative, for decades Debt is the only thing that a twin deficit nation can accumulate, so $37T in debt is what happens Either,…
What is America's "Twin Deficit"? 'A Dummy's Guide' to International Finance I know all of this might seem very complex and overwhelming, but I promise, everyone can understand this analogy: You own a small arts and crafts store. You make handmade goods to sell out of a…
Good morning Since the end of the gold standard, the S&P 500 has increased *8x faster* than the average hourly wage If wages had kept up with the SPX, the average hourly wage would be $240/hr This isn’t just an economic disparity; it’s a systemic absurdity
Put another way: In 1971 it took 25hrs of work at the average job, to buy 1 share of the S&P 500 In 2024, it now takes 195hrs of work at the average job The total value of our corporations has grown 650% faster than our wages
It wasn't for nothing It made the capital class (top 1%) obscenely wealthy
Dostoevsky on US corporate execs that offshored their labor, factories, & even “Gain of Function” research to China, and the U.S. policymakers that allowed and encouraged them to do it:
Just went through the numbers on Tech layoffs and it’s so much worse than you can imagine. 75,000 jobs cut year to date, close to 40% increase YoY from an already sky-high number in 2024. Meanwhile H-1B petitions hit the yearly cap in 6 months and 82% of all new tech jobs have…
If this isn't a 'Silent Depression', then what is? (Pt 4) The consumer (personal income, disposable income, money velocity) clearly peaked in 2000 So where has all this "growth" come from? Government spending, corporate profits & asset markets What am I missing @profplum99
Fun fact: Congress only works 140 days a year This works out to about 2.5 days per week The average full time worker will work 240 days a year
BREAKING: Speaker Mike Johnson shuts down the House until September to block voting on the release of the Epstein files.
This will do wonders to help with the record low affordability and definitely not lead to a dramatic increase in speculation
Trump: We're thinking about no tax on capital gains on houses.
Silent depression pt 8 In the past 25 years, the average purchasing power of the average American's wages have fallen by 50%, on a per-capita basis Your wages, even though they may increase in nominal terms, are losing about 7% per year on a CAGR-basis
A sovereign wealth fund is impossible in the US We’re a twin deficit nation-the only way to acquire these assets is by debt As if the fiscal picture wasn’t bad enough, now we’re putting our kids into more debt, to buy shitcoins Turning the country into a leveraged hedge fund
Silent Depression (Pt 7) Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 peaked in July 1999, just two years after Real Personal Income & Real GDP peaked Since then, we've been 'printing for prosperity' and getting decades of ever-diminishing returns The real economy has been gone for a while
If this isn't a 'Silent Depression', then what is? (Pt 4) The consumer (personal income, disposable income, money velocity) clearly peaked in 2000 So where has all this "growth" come from? Government spending, corporate profits & asset markets What am I missing @profplum99
Debt Crises Grip the West: UK vs USA youtube.com/@economicsunma…

Daily reminder: A strong (overvalued) dollar, record low affordability of single family homes, and our massive trade deficit are all interlinked You cannot de-link a strong dollar from the absolutely historic asset inflation that we've seen the past few decades
Makes perfect sense When you default on the social contract and impoverish people, they generally don’t take kindly to you Goes all the way back to the Trump-Bernie voters that broke all the beltway elite’s minds in 2016
Trump-Mamdani voters are all over NYC and this is terrifying to elites because it means anti-establishment sentiment is unifying people. Look at how the "podcast bros" flip-flop. We're witnessing a realignment in our country that transcends the left-right binary.