Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️)

The Global Reserve Currency Curse: “Dollar Dutch Disease" and the Hollowing Out of America One of the very interesting developments in the past few days is the nomination of JD Vance- a guy from a dirt poor Appalachian town in the Rust Belt. An eyewitness to decades of…

A little post on 'real rates' and how they will inflate the debt away: Because of the fiscal picture, the US now requires negative real rates. The real rate of return (in reference to treasuries) refers to the spread between the yield on a bond, and inflation So, a 4.5% 10yr…

One of the major consequences of the K-shaped economy, seen here The upper leg of the K, obscenely wealthy, has been able to prop up home prices through cash buys Exactly as I predicted 3/2024: "Now to answer the question of who will buy- Simple- it will be the rich, like it…

Boomers really have no clue The avg zoomer male is gonna make Stephen Miller look like a moderate Default on the social contract, you reap what you sow

LET THEM PLAY WITH TWO DOLLS US overconsumption has been funded via one thing: debt Our balance of trade=negative, for decades Our fiscal deficit=negative, for decades Debt is the only thing that a twin deficit nation can accumulate, so $37T in debt is what happens Either,…

Good morning Since the end of the gold standard, the S&P 500 has increased *8x faster* than the average hourly wage If wages had kept up with the SPX, the average hourly wage would be $240/hr This isn’t just an economic disparity; it’s a systemic absurdity

It wasn't for nothing It made the capital class (top 1%) obscenely wealthy

Just went through the numbers on Tech layoffs and it’s so much worse than you can imagine. 75,000 jobs cut year to date, close to 40% increase YoY from an already sky-high number in 2024. Meanwhile H-1B petitions hit the yearly cap in 6 months and 82% of all new tech jobs have…

If this isn't a 'Silent Depression', then what is? (Pt 4) The consumer (personal income, disposable income, money velocity) clearly peaked in 2000 So where has all this "growth" come from? Government spending, corporate profits & asset markets What am I missing @profplum99

Fun fact: Congress only works 140 days a year This works out to about 2.5 days per week The average full time worker will work 240 days a year

This will do wonders to help with the record low affordability and definitely not lead to a dramatic increase in speculation

Silent depression pt 8 In the past 25 years, the average purchasing power of the average American's wages have fallen by 50%, on a per-capita basis Your wages, even though they may increase in nominal terms, are losing about 7% per year on a CAGR-basis

A sovereign wealth fund is impossible in the US We’re a twin deficit nation-the only way to acquire these assets is by debt As if the fiscal picture wasn’t bad enough, now we’re putting our kids into more debt, to buy shitcoins Turning the country into a leveraged hedge fund

Silent Depression (Pt 7) Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 peaked in July 1999, just two years after Real Personal Income & Real GDP peaked Since then, we've been 'printing for prosperity' and getting decades of ever-diminishing returns The real economy has been gone for a while

Debt Crises Grip the West: UK vs USA youtube.com/@economicsunma…

Daily reminder: A strong (overvalued) dollar, record low affordability of single family homes, and our massive trade deficit are all interlinked You cannot de-link a strong dollar from the absolutely historic asset inflation that we've seen the past few decades

Makes perfect sense When you default on the social contract and impoverish people, they generally don’t take kindly to you Goes all the way back to the Trump-Bernie voters that broke all the beltway elite’s minds in 2016