Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️)
@infraa_
capital market enthusiast | macro nerd | futures and options trader | 1 lot ZB! vigilante | "when money isn't scarce, everything else is"
The Global Reserve Currency Curse: “Dollar Dutch Disease" and the Hollowing Out of America One of the very interesting developments in the past few days is the nomination of JD Vance- a guy from a dirt poor Appalachian town in the Rust Belt. An eyewitness to decades of…
The other side of that $150B/mo Current Account deficit is a *massive* bid in financial assets This could buy the entirety of -NFLX in 3mo -Walmart in 5mo It could build 11 Gerald Ford aircraft carriers (per month) or cover the monthly spending of 21M (20%) of US households
This isn't exactly true. You can sell equity stakes in US's crown jewel corporations, farmland around US military bases, DC political favors, & placement spots in top US universities to foreign adversaries with a strong USD. You just can't sell manufactured stuff.
The root of the boomer's arrogance, is a perception of superior intellect They bumbled into an 8,000% appreciation in S&P 500 and 1,200% appreciation in their home's value And it was all just one massive, utterly historic wave of currency debasement But no, ~~superiority~~
There’s this old Tim Dillon clip where he talks about how the boomer is impervious to all arguments because they have “13 foot ceilings” It doesn’t matter that they are ILLEGAL, or that they commit mass identity theft and fraud. The mass human trafficking, child sex…
America now has two classes: 1. Those that owned a home prior to 2021 2. Those who didn’t and are falling further behind by the day The despondency, resentment and rage that #2 has for #1 really cannot be understated It’s just bubbling under the surface… for now. Worries me.
Yeah, but have you seen what it's done for corporate profits? Do you hate shareholder value?! Nevermind that wages' share of GDP has fallen by 7pts and Corporate Profits' share of GDP has more than doubled
If you laid off US tech workers and hired H1B or remote replacements, the problem wasn't that you couldn't find workers, the problem is you wanted cheaper workers.
A little post on 'real rates' and how they will inflate the debt away: Because of the fiscal picture, the US now requires negative real rates. The real rate of return (in reference to treasuries) refers to the spread between the yield on a bond, and inflation So, a 4.5% 10yr…
One of the major consequences of the K-shaped economy, seen here The upper leg of the K, obscenely wealthy, has been able to prop up home prices through cash buys Exactly as I predicted 3/2024: "Now to answer the question of who will buy- Simple- it will be the rich, like it…
Why Home Affordability is so Bad… …and why it’ll likely get worse YouTube.com/@economicsunma…
Boomers really have no clue The avg zoomer male is gonna make Stephen Miller look like a moderate Default on the social contract, you reap what you sow
New - Gen Z Party poll (Man) 🔴 Republican - 52% (+18) 🔵 Democrats 34% Pew research
LET THEM PLAY WITH TWO DOLLS US overconsumption has been funded via one thing: debt Our balance of trade=negative, for decades Our fiscal deficit=negative, for decades Debt is the only thing that a twin deficit nation can accumulate, so $37T in debt is what happens Either,…
What is America's "Twin Deficit"? 'A Dummy's Guide' to International Finance I know all of this might seem very complex and overwhelming, but I promise, everyone can understand this analogy: You own a small arts and crafts store. You make handmade goods to sell out of a…
Good morning Since the end of the gold standard, the S&P 500 has increased *8x faster* than the average hourly wage If wages had kept up with the SPX, the average hourly wage would be $240/hr This isn’t just an economic disparity; it’s a systemic absurdity
Put another way: In 1971 it took 25hrs of work at the average job, to buy 1 share of the S&P 500 In 2024, it now takes 195hrs of work at the average job The total value of our corporations has grown 650% faster than our wages
It wasn't for nothing It made the capital class (top 1%) obscenely wealthy
Dostoevsky on US corporate execs that offshored their labor, factories, & even “Gain of Function” research to China, and the U.S. policymakers that allowed and encouraged them to do it:
Just went through the numbers on Tech layoffs and it’s so much worse than you can imagine. 75,000 jobs cut year to date, close to 40% increase YoY from an already sky-high number in 2024. Meanwhile H-1B petitions hit the yearly cap in 6 months and 82% of all new tech jobs have…
If this isn't a 'Silent Depression', then what is? (Pt 4) The consumer (personal income, disposable income, money velocity) clearly peaked in 2000 So where has all this "growth" come from? Government spending, corporate profits & asset markets What am I missing @profplum99
Fun fact: Congress only works 140 days a year This works out to about 2.5 days per week The average full time worker will work 240 days a year
BREAKING: Speaker Mike Johnson shuts down the House until September to block voting on the release of the Epstein files.
This will do wonders to help with the record low affordability and definitely not lead to a dramatic increase in speculation
Trump: We're thinking about no tax on capital gains on houses.
Silent depression pt 8 In the past 25 years, the average purchasing power of the average American's wages have fallen by 50%, on a per-capita basis Your wages, even though they may increase in nominal terms, are losing about 7% per year on a CAGR-basis
A sovereign wealth fund is impossible in the US We’re a twin deficit nation-the only way to acquire these assets is by debt As if the fiscal picture wasn’t bad enough, now we’re putting our kids into more debt, to buy shitcoins Turning the country into a leveraged hedge fund