Hugo Pienaar

With US stopping aids funding to SA, hole in the 2025/26 national budget is no longer around R58bn (VAT hike minus more items zero rated) but about R65bn. Trump has made the GNU budget negotiations even harder. There goes contingency reserve & previously unallocated expenditure?

Those commentators who argue the SA economy would suffer from a 3% inflation target could perhaps rather debate on how government, business, labour & communities can contribute to achieving such a goal. Think that would be more useful than dismissing the idea of 3%.

Very much in the camp who says Wiaan Mulder should have been given the opportunity to break Brian Lara's record for the highest score in test cricket. If it was Australia, Eng or India, have little doubt they would have gone for it.

Driving back to Cape Town from Joburg yesterday, the Northern Cape landscape with dark winter clouds above it was spectacular. It was cold outside the entire way.

Winter morning ride in beautiful Cape Town.

So, is SA now becoming the 0.5% economy? Stats SA's revisions show that real GDP growth was 0.5% y/y in Q4 2024, calendar year 2024, and also in Q1 2025.

Although key SA mineral exports to the US are excluded from the latest tariff hikes, downgrades to global growth as a result of the multiple rounds of tariff increases will weigh on the demand for SA goods, incl minerals. Gold provides a shield during these uncertain times.

Not for the first time, the sentiment expressed at Davos in January says little of what to expect in the rest of the year. Like the front page of The Economist, Davos sentiment is sometimes a contra-indicator

Not commenting on likelihood here, but in theory, the SA budget could pass in Parliament without DA, MKP, or EFF support. The ANC + other smaller parties have 216 (54%) out of 400 seats (votes) in Parliament.

Unless misquoted, remaIns baffling how some local commentators subscribe near-term rand moves to mostly SA developments. Last week case in point. Weaker dollar/stronger euro surely biggest driver. SA GDP print & current account data secondary. Combo of offshore/local drivers.

Gorgeous early autumm in Cape Town (Durbanville Winelands).

SA Budget Review of last week said corporate tax collections from mining expected to contract by 28% y/y in 2024/25. In addition, revenue from mining & petroleum royalties down by similar magnitude. Excl gold, mining profitability bleeding. In sum, look elsewhere for tax hikes.

Unexpected adverse events in Q1 '25: Trump attack Unprecedented postponement of budget Return of stage 6 load-shedding While SA financial markets have (so far) largely been shielded because of Trump trade unwinding, Q1 SA business & consumer confidence may be hit harder.

So now if somebody runs into you head high, the would be tackler gets penalised. Ridiculous. #CalcuttaCup