Bruna Santos (宝煊)

meus primeiros 2 centavos sobre o plano de ação de IA apresentado ontem pelo governo americano. É uma abordagem de desregulamentar onde há controle técnico, centralizar onde há autonomia crítica. substack.com/profile/24359-…

Share of wealth held by top 1% 🇧🇷 Brazil: 48.4% 🇮🇳 India: 41% 🇺🇸 United States: 34.3% 🇨🇳 China: 31.1% 🇩🇪 Germany: 30% 🇰🇷 South Korea: 23.1% 🇮🇹 Italy: 23.1% 🇦🇺 Australia: 21.7% 🇫🇷 France: 21.2% 🇬🇧 UK: 20.7% 🇯🇵 Japan: 18.8% (Global Wealth Report 2023)

The Brazilian government has issued a decree regulating a piece of legislation being referred to either as the Trade Reciprocity Law, or, in these tariff-defined times, the Retaliation Law. The rule empowers officials to suspend trade, investment and intellectual property…

Trump’s tariff threat gave Lula something Congress, the economy, and PT allies couldn’t: a 7-point net approval boost. In Brazil’s Southeast, his disapproval dropped 8 pts; among college-educated voters, it collapsed by 23 pts.

The USTR has launched a Section 301 investigation into Brazil, citing concerns over the country’s digital trade policies, tariffs, anti-corruption actions, IP protection, ethanol market access, and deforestation. ustr.gov/sites/default/…

Trump's letter was a big Greek present to Bolsonaro.

Lula government’s approval rises after Trump’s tariff hike, Atlas/Bloomberg poll shows. It also indicates that most respondents viewed the Brazilian government’s response as appropriate.

In response to Trump’s 50% tariff threat, Lula signs decree activating a “Retaliation Law.” Creates an interministerial committee to manage trade countermeasures. Enables fast-track provisional retaliation and negotiations, with legal teeth.

Lula tá indo bem nesse "middle power" fire test.

Economic context: Brazil exports around US$40 b annually to the U.S. (~11% of its exports). Worst-case estimates suggest these tariffs could cut Brazil’s current account surplus by US$20 b and shave up to 0.4 pp off GDP .

Lula has called a high-level meeting with ministers and signaled that diplomacy will come first, aiming to negotiate down the tariffs before August 1. Brazil approaches this balancing firmness with Brazil’s long-standing preference for negotiation.

No political side in Brazil, not even the extreme right, will welcome external political interference without raising eyebrows.

Such a timely and meaningful conversation. Grateful to have taken part.

O Brasil prepara resposta com base na Lei da Reciprocidade. Mira setores sensíveis: propriedade intelectual, audiovisual e farmacêutico. Mas mesmo calibrada, a retaliação tem custo: incerteza, fuga de investimento, real em queda.

More than a trade dispute, this is a symbolic war with high political stakes. Lula is likely to capitalize on the conflict at home by invoking narratives of national sovereignty. Both sides seem to see electoral value in confrontation.

This dispute has all the ingredients to drag on. Unlike countries like Mexico and Colombia, whose economies are more closely integrated with the U.S., Brazil relies very little on the American market.