Grant Bailey
@grantjbailey
Research Associate @FamStudies. Opinions my own.
Just reading what people say, you'd be forgiven for thinking it's this elite subgroup of people who end up marrying, but it's probably going to be around 2/3 to 4/5 of adults. Not great, very bad for fertility, but it's a strong majority.
It looks like new marriages are (shockingly) stronger than in past decades. 🧵
A few takeaways from falling divorce rates: 1. The decline is probably selection 2. Low marriage rates don't explain divorce rates across the board (pre 1970s had HIGH marriage) 3. Lower divorce is great for kids (but there are less kids) 4. DONT BUY THAT 50% OF MARRIAGES FAIL
This shouldn’t be a surprise. Fewer marriages and no cultural requirement or push for marriage means those who marry tend to be more serious about it. Still, it’s good to neutralize the argument many make: “you’re rolling the dice if you marry.” It’s clearly not true among…
:(
I want to see a percentage of low and working class people getting married over time.
New: Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), we found that new marriages are stronger today than in every decade since the 1950s. @grantjbailey @lymanstoneky @BradWilcoxIFS
Given declines in divorce among more recent cohorts of married men & women, @grantjbailey @lymanstoneky & I estimate "that about 40% of today’s first marriages will end in divorce."
Food was between a quarter and a third of HHI back then, and it was far less interesting and (in this example) even nourishing than today. Virtually any American, should they spend 33% of HHI on food, would have one of the richest and most nourishing and varied diets ever.
A week's worth of groceries in 1947. It costs a total of $12.50 a week to buy all of these groceries. This managed to feed a family of 4 with a single income, home mortgage and car payment.
When men have power to influence their mate options, they tend to use that power to find a peer-age woman for companionship in life. ifstudies.org/blog/high-stat… @lymanstoneky