Emily Jin
@ew_jin
Structured noodling over U.S.-China economic, technological, & ideological competition. 博观而约取，厚积而薄发。
Xi's meeting with private tech titans goes beyond an alignment b/w the state & the private sector. It's part of a detailed tech security strategy by China's Central National Security Commission in "The Total National Security Paradigm (2022)," translated here for the first time:
🚨 New essay: on Torigian’s biography of Xi Zhongxun. This isn’t a book about Xi Jinping. It’s a study of the Chinese Communist Party, centered around the life of a man who rose, fell, and rose again inside its Leninist machinery. And it's a book about suffering and meaning 🧵
After a year of sitting on them, I decided to publish my notes and take aways from Kotkin's first volume on Stalin.
🚨✍️ NEW POST — Industrial Colossus: China vs 1950s America In a number of ways, China mirrors America at the height of its industrial powers. Despite UN projections and the dreams of some industrial maximalists, as share of global manufacturing, China is peaking. 🧵
NEW: Some bonkers numbers in China's May customs data. Detailed figures came out Fri when I was off, so took a deep dive today First big picture EU stuff: China's EU exports up 12% China's EU imports down 2.37% There is a 22% increase in the EU's China deficit in May alone
Marveling at this review of my book on Xi Zhongxun by @JonathonPSine: he absolutely nailed it. It was precisely to facilitate this kind of reflection that I wrote “The Party’s Interests Come First”
I’m only halfway through @JosephTorigian’s biography of Xi Zhongxun. But already agree with @JonathonPSine on what an impressive book it is. open.substack.com/pub/jonathonps…
The three most important contributions in history to human health-span: 1) vaccines, the greatest medical intervention of all time; 2) the rise of urban sanitation—clean water and sewage systems; and 3) antibiotics. A crude estimate
I’m only halfway through @JosephTorigian’s biography of Xi Zhongxun. But already agree with @JonathonPSine on what an impressive book it is. open.substack.com/pub/jonathonps…
China’s Need for US Petrochemical Feedstocks Undercuts Rare Earth Curbs
Not correct. But they hold enough to cause plenty of pain. Each side controls numerous, & very severe, key supply chain chokepoints.
The overwhelming consensus here on X is that China holds all the cards on these trade talks over rare earths...do they?
Arrives before Father’s Day
Only two more left in stock on Amazon if someone wants to grab one
Chinese payment platforms like @Alipay & @WechatPay are quietly expanding in the U.S.—despite blocking U.S. platforms at home. This asymmetry raises serious concerns around fair competition, censorship, & national security. It’s time for a reciprocity-based approach. 1/
Fukuyama has a 20,000 record database of every book and article he's ever read (and created his own database with python) the man owns his own CNC machine, has built a functioning rover from scratch, is a woodworker who built his own dining room set, etc etc
The Chinese Communist Party is seeking to create "The Programmable State" through financial tech. What could go wrong? @ew_jin and I have been following this since 2020. Check our latest research on China's CBDC pilots, finally published!
In a new paper for Lawfare's Research Initiative, Yaya J. Fanusie and @ew_jin explore how the e-CNY, China’s central bank digital currency, enables enhanced tracking of financial transactions and argue that it carries substantial risks, including increased state surveillance.
In which I share a few thoughts on the domestic and geopolitical landscape that Chinese firms in strategic sectors must navigate. Great reporting by @Kate_OKeeffe @Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
youtube.com/watch?v=rzlKDA… New podcast with @jordanschnyc. In it we discuss: 1) "Liberation day" tariffs. 2) My model for how decision making works in the Trump administration 3) The 8 GOP schools of thought on 🇨🇳laid out in my new @FPRI report 4) Governing hostile bureaucracies
The interesting flip side of China's increasing bankruptcy cases is the even greater rise since the early 2010s of loss-making private industrial firms. As Adam Wolfe puts it: "the government has been giving private firms TOO MUCH support in recent years."
Impressive. China had 29,000 bankruptcy cases in 2023. That's 68.8% higher than 2022 and up 412% from 2017. could indicate accelerating clearance of China's ample number of local “zombie enterprises” 僵尸企业, as the Supreme People's Court annual report notes:
"Antisocial punishment" is one of the weirdest findings in experimental economics. People in some places will pay to punish others who cooperate. This comes from the public goods game, which is played as follows: You’re given 20 tokens and placed in a computer-mediated,…