camilo
@curiouscamilo
building a hedge fund
“bait” markets (e.g., will jesus christ return in 2025?) onboard liquidity to polymarket, which later cascades into other, more useful markets that need it
polymarket has seen continuous YoY improvement in the % of new users who return to trade in subsequent months after their first active month
the orderbooks of subjective prediction markets (eg. will @karpathy join one of @elonmusk companies by aug 31?) are harder to bootstrap than those with existing financial instruments around them (eg. will $btc hit $120k). polymarket pays market makers $600k/month in aggregate to…
survival guide for venture investors allocating to prediction markets supercycle: - if startup is pushing novel scoring rules or AMM designs, ie some derivative of LMSR, you can prob assume they're at least 6-8 months away from any kind of meaningful execution - user generated…
estimating @Polymarket 's potential revenue if it were to implement the same fee structure as @Kalshi: 1) source data from the underlying blockchain polymarket runs on (@0xPolygon) 2) model kalshi's two-tiered fee structure, comprising separate taker and maker concave functions…
the polymarket network effect has reached escape velocity. regulatory adoption was delayable (and acquirable), capturing trading volume, international market share and cultural mind share was not. kalshi walked so polymarket could run. no trading fees and no revenue isn't a…
Squawk Box round 2 on @CNBC this morning talking about Polymarket's return to the US & more 🇺🇸 We're coming.
alan waxman: the enemy of a multi-strategy investing business is fiefdoms and silos. if you have people who don't want to be team players and share information and share relationships, the whole unitization of risk units and return units, it all breaks down. so culture goes hand…
alan waxman on what makes sixth street tick: it’s the ability to unitize risk-reward across different asset classes, geographies, sectors, return profiles, duration profiles. the skill of being able to constantly compare relative risk units and return units
a convertible note had sex with a perpetual bond and did ayahuasca with Satoshi
Thrive Partners VII Growth GP LLC historic purchases of $OSCR at a weighted average price of $15.34/share
long bitcoin
Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt,…