Cullen Roche
@cullenroche
Founder & CIO @disciplinefunds 📊 | Author @pragcap 📖| PM of DSCF 💰| Defined Duration Investing ⌛| Board at Cambria ETFs 💸
My guess is cutting rates to 1.5% would cut govt interest expense in the short term. Then it would spark a binge of private borrowing as mortgage rates fall to 4% or so. Then inflation would surge and the Fed would have to raise rates to counter it. Then govt interest expense…
Back of the napkin math: If the FFR was cut to 1.5% then 10 year term premium is typically about 1% which implies 2.5% 10 year. Average weighted maturity of govt debt is 6.5 years so avg rate of debt likely lands near 2.25%. Debt held by public is $30T so that delta is about…
I respect, but disagree with Mohamed. The Fed is designed to be independent of political pressure. That's the main goal of having an independent Fed so it can implement countercyclical policy (like raising rates in 2022) when the rest of the govt is printing money and stimulating…
This morning, US government criticism of both Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the institution itself has broadened to include "mission creep" and the effectiveness of other officials. The developments of the last few days reinforce my view: If Chair Powell's objective is to…
One thing I've learned from this website is that no amount of wealth will help you overcome the insecurity that results from decades of missing leg day.
I did an overhaul of the DF Macro Dashboard. I added my Leading Inflation Index, a real-time Taylor Rule tool, my favorite charts and some useful links. I hope you find it helpful! disciplinefunds.com/macro-dashboar…
The single biggest factor in the collapse of global extreme poverty was China's shift from Maoist central planning to state Capitalism. The second key driver was Asia's adoption of US led free trade principles. Capitalism helped crush global poverty. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Poverty wouldn’t exist if resources were shared. Capitalism creates poverty.
I have drafted a letter to fire my wife from back seat driving. I don’t have the authority to stop this, but I will do it nonetheless.
Jerome Powell:
Jerome Powell is going to be fired. Firing is imminent.
Total tariff receipts were just $26.6B in June (total revenue was $526B). So far we're tracking at just $2.6B in July. Tariff income lags early in the month so we should be tracking for high 20s again this month. These are not huge line items in the federal budget. This is…
1) PCE at 2.3%, below historical average. 2) Labor market softening. 3) Trump about to appoint Fed Chief who will want to cut rates. I'll take the under on this one.
DIMON: I WOULD PRICE IN A 40%-50% CHANCE OF HIGHER U.S. INTEREST RATES
WAYT? LIVE WITH @michaelbatnick, @cullenroche, @EricBalchunas and @Kantrowitz x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
The June budget SURPLUS should be about $60B. Since February the budget DEFICIT in 2025 is coming in at around $460B vs $740B in 2024. Is Trump having a big impact on the budget deficit?
I'll be on live today at 5PM ET with @michaelbatnick - should be a great show.
TONIGHT ON A SPECIAL EDITION OF WAYT?🚨🎙️ @michaelbatnick will be joined by @cullenroche, @EricBalchunas, and @Kantrowitz live at 5pm ET to discuss who can replace the dollar, will the deficit crush us, the most successful ETF ever, will Apple buy Perplexity, Meta vs OpenAI, and…
Eh. Not as robust as headlines appear. It was mostly govt jobs. Pvt sector employment missed bigly (75k vs 105k estimate). And wages were really soft at 3.7% (3.9% est). It's not a recessionary report at all. But this is still a softening labor market.
If I were elected mayor of NYC I would seize the means of production and then place a Dominos Pizza and a leg press machine on every block.