Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) helps its clients manage and mitigate the weather’s important impacts on agricultural and energy commodities.
Active western Tropical Pacific may be helping bolster Western Canadian (+PNA) ridging.
Western Tropical Pacific traffic jam adding chaos to middle-latitudes and modeling, contributing to higher model volatility and reduced skill scores.
First 8 days of August forecast to run slightly cooler than normal for U.S.
Tuesday, July 29 should be hottest day of U.S. summer, but model forecast of 15.8 CDDs (matching 2024's maximum) is probably too hot. 30-day, bias-corrected estimate favors 15.2 instead.
Falling global wind anomaly usually favors East heat again in August, but PNA needs to flip negative typically too.
Heat rotation situation in coming days with stints on the East Coast, Midwest, and South.
Next northern Gulf tropical disturbance reaches Houston by Friday.
Front week heat and second week cooling as August begins.
Remnants of last week's Gulf disturbance still impeding ERCOT heat onset.
European ensemble pattern analogs show cooler/wetter risks for Texas and cooler East chances for 11-15 day.
Watching another disturbance late this week that could dent ERCOT demand, similar to this past weekend.
All-ensemble mean is debating either this Friday 7/25 or next Monday 7/28 as potentially hottest day of U.S. summer nationally. This is about 1 CDD weaker than last year's peak.
Hottest day of summer for U.S. looks to be week from today (Fri Jul 25), just 3-4 days slower than normal with mid-90s into Consuming East. Heat indices should be well into 100s.
Skill-optimized 11-15 day forecasts favor Central heat focus.
Tropical forcing and global wind anomaly help to explain mid-continent heat ridge focus in 11-15 day.
CWG's latest estimate for July ranks 2025 in U.S. similarly to last year at about 6th hottest on record compared to all years back to 1950.
Another northern Gulf disturbance is seen next week, and this one could bring rain to Houston by late week to dent upcoming hotter period.
Notable improvements in satellite-derived NDVI anomalies for the U.S. corn belt support favorable yield implications. commoditywx.com/news/20250715/…
Questions continue about whether upcoming heat gets trapped in South Central U.S. for summer pattern change or retrogrades back into Upper West, as seen often this summer so far.
