Brian Carter

The Houthis are now a strategic threat with global implications for the US. The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The Houthis will learn from this campaign, and their cont'd ops will draw US efforts from the Indo-Pacific.

A more coherent story @nytimes on the latest Iran BDA. Latest findings appear to show a two-year setback to Fordow, remaining HEU stocks in Esfahan tunnels whose entrances were hit by Tomahawks, and possibly remnants at the Natanz underground enrichment plant despite use of two…

This week’s Iraq🧵 1/🇮🇶judiciary is promising reform under new leadership. The Federal Supreme Court (FSC), now headed by Judge Munthir Hussein, pledged to protect judicial independence and avoid political interference, amid rising legal-political tensions. #Iraq #RuleOfLaw

Fellow Iran missile nerds will get a kick out of this... Reportedly, the family of deceased IRGC-AF Chief BG Amir-Ali Hajizadeh has written his (still unsanctioned by @USTreasury) replacement, BG Seyyed Majid Mousavi, a good luck letter wherein they re-up that fact that Mousavi…

A great corrective piece from @KarolinaAHird. Acting like the entente does not exist just because China or Russia did not immediately jump to Iran's aid by sending guns, tanks, and missiles, misses completely what this entente is. These groups are, from the report, "neither…

I spoke to @demarest_colin this week about the US in the Middle East. The US should make a proactive effort to prevent small problems from becoming big, global threats to our interests. Ignoring the Middle East (or any other theater where we have interests) is not the answer.

New: The US military has quietly been building a big logistics base in the Saudi desert, 20 miles from the Red Sea. It’s got living quarters, munitions storage, an entrance checkpoint and quite a bit of ongoing construction. Gift link and 🧵 below: nytimes.com/2025/06/26/wor…

Brief, top level review of Iranian missile performance: of the 30 or so hits on Israel, very few missiles actually struck anything important. There are 2-3 hits on Ramon AB, but not on anything important (they hit taxiways), and some possible hits at other airbases.

I have no insight into the current state of Iran’s nuclear program. I do, however, understand how intelligence works. Here are some thoughts on how to responsibly think about current events.

L'"axe de la Résistance", instrument essentiel de l'influence militaire de l'#Iran, est resté bien silencieux pendant la "guerre des 12 jours" face à #Israël. Houthis, Hezbollah ou milices chiites irakiennes : tous ont été affaiblis par Israël et les Etats-Unis ces derniers mois

The American strike on Fordow enrichment plant was astoundingly accurate.   The U.S. military successfully precision-hit the two weakest points in the mountain over the underground Fordow halls.  They happened to be perpendicular to each other at two ends of underground halls,…

Israeli ballistic missile defense was remarkably effective during this war. Not only was the interception rate high, but at least some missiles--by @criticalthreats / @TheStudyofWar's count, at least 5--struck insignificant or empty locations and caused 0 casualties. Air…