Anup Malani
@anup_malani
Chief Economist, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. On leave: Professor, U. Chicago. Views expressed here are not intended to reflect those of CMS.
See our No-Spin report on the Baby’s First Years RCT, studying the effects of providing unconditional cash transfers to low-income, new mothers in the US. In brief: This high-quality RCT found no impact on any of the study’s primary child development outcomes at 4y follow-up.🧵
1/ Week 30: The theory paper(s) in focus this week are KMR 93 & Young 93, which provided a remarkably elegant evolutionary perspective to equilibrium selection in games. If games have multiple equilibria, which is more "reasonable", if at all? A deep problem in game theory.
Nearly everyone has given up on urban K-12 reform. Politicians no longer talk about it. There's but one city, Houston, attempting wholesale reform and early results are incredibly promising. Cities from across the US are starting to pay attention. In 2023, after years of falling…
1000 low income adults were randomly selected to receive $1000/month for 3 years, with a control group receiving $50/month over that same period. Many of them had children in the household. How did it affect how they parented and their kids?
🎧 The latest episode of Value Investing with Legends featuring @CliffordAsness (co-founder of AQR Capital Management) is truly exceptional; one of the best podcast episodes I’ve ever listened to: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cli… Let me first share why I always listen to this podcast…
NEW: There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment. I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged: Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
🚨🚨🚨 Friends, I am pleased to report a novel finding: Demand curves slope down! New paper: “Did California's Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment?” By @jeffreypclemens, Olivia Edwards & Jonathan Meer. Link: nber.org/papers/w34033
Has fertility been in a long decline for 200 years from which any upswings are exceptional deviations? No. Many societies were below replacement rate in 1800! The map below shows "Effective Reproductive Rates" inspired by the work of @anup_malani (though from different data)
Many readers of my previous posts ask why my TFR numbers differ from the United Nations World Population Prospects, UN WPP (or the World Bank, which relies on it). Simple: 1️⃣ I use each country’s own statistical agency official numbers. 2️⃣ The UN WPP consistently overestimates…
We keep forgetting: the big fertility collapse of the past decade has happened mostly in middle- and low-income countries. Here’s a non-exhaustive list of countries with lower TFR than the U.S. Source and more details below: x.com/JesusFerna7026…
I’m sharing my slide deck on the demographic future of humanity, 🔗 Slides: sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slide… prepared for the keynote address I will give tomorrow to the 7th EBRD and CEPR Research Symposium on “The Economics of Demographic Change”: 🔗 Symposium: ebrd.com/home/news-and-……
One of the most lucid, succinct summaries of Atkinson-Stiglitz and its progeny.
1/ Week 28: Theory paper in focus this week is the seminal article by Anthony Atkinson and @JosephEStiglitz that is now famously referred to as the "zero commodity/capital taxation" benchmark in public economics. It has led to much technical & policy debates. Let's find out.
1/ New paper: Democracies only grow faster than autocracies because of personalist leaders. Bad things mainly happen in overcentralized, unchecked regimes. New from me, Scott Gehlbach & @arthurzeyangyu, The Personalist Penalty: osf.io/preprints/soca…