Aaron David Miller

Will America ever have another truly great President? Probably not. Greatness requires 3Cs— crisis; character; capacity. A rare combo. nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%…

A fascinating thread. Deadlines and redlines have a way of turning pink

.@elerianm The United States is still the most powerful and prosperous country in the world, and it has mature institutions. But in economic and financial terms, the country now sometimes resembles a developing nation. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

.@CarnegieEndow @CEIPStatecraft @ForeignPolicy Israeli elections may be coming. Will Trump run Bibi's campaign from Washington or has he had enough?foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/22/net…

To quote Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny -"dead on balls accurate" There's rarely black and white here, only gray. Of 3 options - breakthrough; breakdown; or muddle through, I'm betting on number 3.

For years we tried to get Hafez al-Assad to agree to high-level talks with Israel. Extraordinary that with the fall of the Assads -- the main stumbling block removed -- those talks are taking place. Watch this walk down memory lane.youtube.com/watch?v=-A6t36…

A powerful symbol, especially if others in G-7 joined. But without really doing anything on the ground to change Palestinians'plight, it's largely virtue signaling. And what is France recognizing? June 1967 borders with land swaps or without; and what of Jerusalem?

No one should be surprised by state of play in Israel-Hamas talks. They only have speeds slow and slower. Differences btwn inside/outside Hamas leaders; toughening demands as #s of hostages Hamas dwindles; and Israeli politics. x.com/BarakRavid/sta…

The closer Hamas gets to losing its only leverage in negotiations - 50 hostages alive and dead (20 left if this interim deal is done), the higher the price. Hamas internal leaders believe - likely wrongly -Trump will pressure Netanyahu to give more.

🚨🚨Crisis in the Gaza ceasefire talks. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office announces that "in light of Hamas' response to the proposal, it has been decided to recall the negotiation team from Doha for further consultations in Israel. “We appreciate the efforts of the mediators,…

What’s wrong with this picture? The norms/institutions of the Republic are being hollowed out; foreign policy challenges abound; and yet media/political class are focused on a dead convicted sex offender and a set of files that would make X Files Scully and Mulder yawn.

There’s only one missing party. And it’s a vicious circle. If mediators pry a concession out of Israel, Hamas calculates it can get more which in turn hardens Israel’s position. Still, I’m thinking an interim deal by August 15 if not before.

Having worked for both Rs and Ds, loyalty is important. But blind loyalty to an individual, not to the truth, the Constitution and what's right is what my Bubbe would call a double Shonda; and that's the currency of this realm.

Agreed 100%. I was State's INR analyst on Lebanon in the 80s. JFK used to call INR analysts on Vietnam for straight talk. INR could do truth to power back then. I Got a call from WH Sit Room one morning. It was VP Bush. Read your latest n Lebanon. Got a few minutes to chat?

Stunning that Trump is objecting to Israeli strikes in Syria and understandably a strike against a Church in Gaza. But has left Netanyahu with a margin to manuever in Gaza that's as wide as the Grand Canyon.

Necessary but not sufficient. There’s only one external actor that can create a credible pathway to end the war; and that’s Trump. And right now for any number of reasons he’s either unwilling and/or unable.

We'll look back on this catastrophe shaking our heads all the while wondering why so many innocents had to die. Hamas set the stage and Israel played its part.

To this day, Trump remains the only US president who has both sidelined and made Netanyahu central to his policy. If frustration and anger move from team Trump to Trump, Netanyahu will have a problem. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/03/tru…

I hope it lasts. But underlying issues aren’t resolved: Syria’s inability to assert control over Druze areas; and suspicion when they try; Israel’s suspicion of Shara govt; commitment to their Druze; and preference for a weak Syria rather than one controlled by Shara and Turkey.

I can see next head of Mossad agreeing to Netanyahu's transfer plan. But it's hard to believe David Barnea has bought this. I wouldn't criticize any Palestinian leaving Gaza given what it's become. But let's be clear- Israel wants Gaza Palestinian free; West Bank too if possible.

Talks about talks. Let negotiations begin.Essentially Iran agrees to resumption of IAEA inspections for extension of SnapBack.Assuming this is about buying time/space for a negotiation that may prove to be a key to an empty room.