Tim Quast

@_TimQuast

Founder/CEO of ModernIR and Market Structure EDGE LLC. Invented Market Structure Analytics for IR. Expert on equity market structure.

Denver, CO

Joined August 2015

195Following

3KFollowers

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 23

Weave @tourdefrance_25 into weekly blog: Check. The market has been like Mont Ventoux - a big climb. There's also a big descent off Ventoux. modernir.com/does-anybody-k…

_TimQuast's tweet card. The stock market is like Mont Ventoux: A relentlessly rising mount. Does anyone know why? And when does the ascent end?

155

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 22

Round of applause for @WSJ Heard writer @Spencerjakab for today's great piece: Why are stock up? Nobody knows. wsj.com/finance/stocks…

_TimQuast's tweet card. A torrent of bad news hasn’t been enough to sink the market.

223

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 21

As the @EdgeStructure mob knows, new options for August expiration traded today. Stocks started strong and finished weak on less demand for leverage than anticipated. Tomorrow is #CounterpartyTuesday when the books on these and the ones expiring last week are squared.

246

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 17

I remind everyone, because I've not heard it mentioned anywhere by anyone, that the market is up today because of #index #options expirations. Tomorrow are #stock options expirations. The arbitrage trade between them is the same that Jane Street pursued in India (in wklys).

474

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 16

This view of $GPN shows one predictive signal of #activism. If at options-expirations, there's mass #short covering, it may be somebody building a stake. The trouble is, Elliott and other activists don't create shareholder value. Their targets are booted from #Passive baskets.

_TimQuast's tweet image. This view of $GPN shows one predictive signal of #activism. If at options-expirations, there's mass #short covering, it may be somebody building a stake. The trouble is, Elliott and other activists don't create shareholder value. Their targets are booted from #Passive baskets.

377

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 16

What if the #stockmarket isn't priced by #tariffs or #inflation or whether the President fires the Fed Chair? Then we're looking in the wrong places for #risk. modernir.com/heuristics/

_TimQuast's tweet card. Can AI deal with heuristics, the inherently messy human decision-making process? And what's it got to do with how stocks trade?

237

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 15

I don't think most appreciate how anomalous conditions have been Apr-Jul 2025. Almost never does this relationship -- converging Demand/Supply -- produce gains. It did in June 2025. It did not today.

_TimQuast's tweet image. I don't think most appreciate how anomalous conditions have been Apr-Jul 2025. Almost never does this relationship -- converging Demand/Supply -- produce gains. It did in June 2025. It did not today.

405

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 15

Always beware of Context -- cadence and calendar of the market. This is the calendar (as earnings kick off):

363

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 15

The US economy is a massive aircraft carrier. The @federalreserve tries to manage rates like one person swimming out front with a tow rope. It's cognitively dissonant, destined to fail. The Fed does not try to prevent tulip manias. The Fed tries to prevent falling prices.

186

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 11

$NVDA update: Demand/Supply divergence spurs gains. Check. Now, Supply is rising. Demand is strong -- but that's convergence now, not divergence, into next week's options-expirations. @EdgeStructure

_TimQuast's tweet image. $NVDA update: Demand/Supply divergence spurs gains. Check. Now, Supply is rising. Demand is strong -- but that's convergence now, not divergence, into next week's options-expirations. @EdgeStructure

254

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 10

I'm traveling so market strategist Brian Wilson is hosting the @EdgeStructure discussion. Snippet from his Market Desk note today (free signup for those). A few seats left at 230p ET: calendly.com/marketstructur…

191

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 10

Five more single-stock leveraged #ETFs start trading today, courtesy of @CBOE. This kind of exposure is now a major characteristic of large-cap stocks, outranking sector and fundamentals. It's one reason why the market is no longer a reliable barometer for earnings multiples.

_TimQuast's tweet image. Five more single-stock leveraged #ETFs start trading today, courtesy of @CBOE. This kind of exposure is now a major characteristic of large-cap stocks, outranking sector and fundamentals. It's one reason why the market is no longer a reliable barometer for earnings multiples.

214

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 9

Here's why $CORZ isn't getting love on the $CRWV deal. Supply most times in deals moves down sharply. Not so here, so price has fallen. Meaning? Obstacles to the deal?

_TimQuast's tweet image. Here's why $CORZ isn't getting love on the $CRWV deal. Supply most times in deals moves down sharply. Not so here, so price has fallen. Meaning? Obstacles to the deal?

1.0K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 9

One more, $AVGO. Over three years, it's gone from a #value stock (lots of time at 5.0), to #momentum (bouncing from 1 to 10), to for the first time having a pattern like $NVDA recently. What's made it more volatile since mid-2024 is a steep drop in Supply (short volume).

_TimQuast's tweet image. One more, $AVGO. Over three years, it's gone from a #value stock (lots of time at 5.0), to #momentum (bouncing from 1 to 10), to for the first time having a pattern like $NVDA recently. What's made it more volatile since mid-2024 is a steep drop in Supply (short volume).

619

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 9

As $NVDA hits $4T, here's a simple way to know when to own it: When Demand hits 10.0 and then remains over 5.0. When Demand breaks below 5.0, wise to leave. That nearly happened at June opex. Options expire next week.

_TimQuast's tweet image. As $NVDA hits $4T, here's a simple way to know when to own it: When Demand hits 10.0 and then remains over 5.0. When Demand breaks below 5.0, wise to leave. That nearly happened at June opex. Options expire next week.

297

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 9

Ahead of the open, here's our take on the Jane Street saga in India. #arbitrage is massive, issuers and investors. You need strategies for navigating it. modernir.com/merry-jane-str…

_TimQuast's tweet card. Jane Street has been temporarily banned from the Indian stock market. It's a top-25 holder of US equities and a major force here. What happened?

227

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 2

A row of portfolios from my @EdgeStructure dashboard. Big six banks are 9.8 Demand, 42.7% Supply (Reg SHO rule 201 data). Smoking. But near a top. Gold, converging, weaker. a $ spike coming? Healthcare, some divergence, good. Homebuilders, about to top. Fast Trading leads all.

_TimQuast's tweet image. A row of portfolios from my @EdgeStructure dashboard. Big six banks are 9.8 Demand, 42.7% Supply (Reg SHO rule 201 data). Smoking. But near a top. Gold, converging, weaker. a $ spike coming? Healthcare, some divergence, good. Homebuilders, about to top. Fast Trading leads all.

243

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 2

As the #momentum market bears down on monthly jobs data, here's something to ponder. Half of you will disagree. You can send me hate posts. modernir.com/open-letter/

_TimQuast's tweet card. Here's an open letter to government that started with a failed laptop delivery. It's emblematic of a looming and harsh transition.

198

Tim Quast@_TimQuast · Jul 1

Wrote this for the @IBKR quant blog: interactivebrokers.com/campus/ibkr-qu…

_TimQuast's tweet card. Quant traders, here’s how the market possesses momentum characteristics from our view

335