Zachary Donnini
@ZacharyDonnini
Data Science @DecisionDeskHQ, @YalePolling. Political data analysis, demographics, and elections. Yale ‘25, Harvard MS ‘27.
In 2024, if White voters nationwide had voted like White voters did in Georgia, Trump would’ve won every state except Maryland. It’s remarkable how competitive Democrats remain in GA, thanks to the size and turnout of its Black electorate.
In 2024, Trump saw his largest gains in the poorest precincts, while Harris slipped less in areas of above‑average wealth.
In 2024, Harris drew her strongest support from the wealthiest and poorest precincts, while Trump prevailed in the middle‑income areas, producing a distinct U‑shaped pattern.
Trump made his biggest gains in the least‑educated precincts in 2024. His gains narrowed in more‑educated areas, and in the very highest‑educated precincts the trend flattened (and eventually swung the other way).
In 2024, Harris attracted her strongest backing in the most‑ and least‑educated precincts while Trump dominated those with low‑to‑moderate education levels, producing a U‑shaped curve.
In 2024, if White voters nationwide had voted like White voters did in Alabama, Trump would’ve won in a historic landslide: 535 electoral votes to Harris’s 3. He would’ve carried everything except D.C., with the next closest call a 12-point win in Maryland.
If only nonwhite voters had cast ballots in 2024, Harris would’ve won in a landslide: 525 electoral votes to Trump’s 13. Trump’s strongest region would have been the less-Black, more-Hispanic West.
The more diverse a precinct is, the better Democrats do with the White voters who live there. Republicans dominate White voters in heavily white areas.
My rough calculation is that about 1.8% of NYC D primary voters were Orthodox Jew/Trump voters. That would mean Mamdani needed to win non-Orthodox Trump voters by 40 points just to break even among Trump voters overall, which I think is basically impossible.
Based on Nate Cohn's analysis of the voter files and matching it with a previous NYT NYC poll, he finds among that the Dem electorate who turned out to vote, Harris won 89-6, while most Trump-friendly Democrats opted to skip the primary; Harris only led 66-24 among nonvoters.
US Group Cohesion Scores White: 0.80 Black: 0.44 Hispanic: 0.41 Asian: 0.24 To explain: the White Group Cohesion Score of 0.80 means the average white person lives in a precinct that is 80% white. By contrast, the average Asian lives in a precinct that is only 24% Asian.
Dem aligned Paloma Aguirre is ahead of GOP aligned John McCann by a 53.4-46.6 margin in the first drop in San Diego County Board of Supervisors District 1 (Harris+21) Special Election. The winner of this race will decide control of the board, which is currently tied 2-2.