Tyler Neville
@Tyler_Neville_
Macro & Market Structure, Husband, Dad of 3 boys (expert in arbitration of toy disputes) Weekly Macro Podcast @ForwardGuidance
The heroes of this generation are usually the villains of the next...
😂 massively oversubscribed. There is a dearth of REAL yield in the fiat world with credit spreads so low. This is generational arbitrage.
$MSTR Upsizes $STRC IPO 4x to $2B From $500M; Prices at $90, 9% Initial Dividend, 10% Effective Yield - Bloomberg
If you don’t think we are in a productivity boom consider this from @DisruptionHedge . The age of robotics is here! “Case in point: starting in the 1960s, the largest US automaker, General Motors, steadily transformed its production lines. Today, they incorporate over 30,000…
The amount of hate on $STRC makes me want to buy it 😂 It’s gonna be oversubscribed. Why would you pay 6% yield on a HY bond with credit risk, relative to this product?
They’ve got to be kidding me… who’s buying this nonsense?
There is a major crisis coming down the pipe.. What do you think the Fed response is going to be when ~$1 Trillion of CRE loans come due along with having to roll $7 trillion of US treasury debt?! @muddywatersre This is why I say, “I’m so bearish, I’m bullish.” The boomers…
Based on 2025 CRE data, $957B in loans mature, with offices facing ~$200-300B. Distress is rising (delinquencies >$116B), driven by vacancies and rates. Analysts predict hundreds of forced sales or major haircuts (50%+ losses) in office sector alone, potentially manifesting as…
**Free Alpha Alert while I can talk single-stocks for another month;)** Obviously there is macro risk heading into month end pension rebalancing & earnings, but this chart looks perfect for a breakout higher if you have a longer time horizon. It's a 3 year cup & Handle.…
There cannot be a recession until we reach 50 GW of power. This is the new AI/Space war. It's existential.
Training the world’s most capable AI models in the United States is a national security imperative. But this will take substantial investments in energy and computing power. We estimate America’s AI sector will need at least 50 gigawatts of electrical power by 2028.
Why is this so shocking to you? Money throughout history has always moved from public money until it gets co-opted to private money which is a more stable store of value. If you look back hundreds of years that’s been the norm….
Holy shit these guys have lost their fucking minds. algorithmic stable coin turning MSTR into a central bank NO It's an unbacked preferred share unable to be used for any sort of payment system or collateral with a floating dividend This shit makes stable coins look great!
C.A.C. —-Crypto as collateral baby!
🇺🇸 $4 TRILLION BANKING GIANT JP MORGAN TO OFFER #BITCOIN BACKED LOANS HERE WE GO!!!
Can some legacy investment bankers chime in on this… If $PUMP raised $500 mln dollars in 12 minutes at a fraction of the cost of an IPO or private financing round, doesn’t that undermine the entire profession? This is coming from an equity & derivs trader that has seen his…
Crypto-As-Collateral - “C.A.C.” The use as collateral should cause a major revaluation higher for crypto. If you don’t have to sell your crypto and can borrow fiat against it, the incentive to HODL becomes that much greater similar to how you can use margin against your stocks.…
This would be a massive unlock for crypto market structure JPMorgan Chase is considering plans to allow clients to borrow against their cryptocurrency holdings as early as next year, according to Financial Times.
.@grok who will recognize the losses on this haircut? Which type of companies haven’t marked these commercial real estate buildings to market?
One of the tallest skyscrapers in Chicago recently sold for $45 million, or ~$35 per SF... it last sold for $302m in 2014 That's a $250+ million 'haircut'
It's possible we are watching a giant macro peace dividend arriving here like @DrPippaM has been alluding to. With $NVDA reselling chips into China and China selling rare earths back into the US that is the beginning signs. There is also chatter Xi is getting older and losing…
Making years of @dampedspring's returns in two weeks. $IREN & $GLXY revaluing now. Take some off the table on these moves. Alpha City.
We likely need price confirmation tomorrow to solidify a breakout, but it's possible the Fed Minutes just tapped us into a whole new credit cycle to the upside. Reminder there is $7 trillion of cash on the sidelines in money market funds. If they cut rates, you do the math...…
This is why I keep saying short volatility assets that were bought to generate yield have way more risk than you think. Long volatility stores of value (like BTC) become more in demand after a generation of recycling insurance premiums/taxes for public pensions into Comm RE has…
Boeing is close to a deal to sell its former headquarters at 100 N. Riverside Plaza Chicago, Illinois for 15% to 18% of its price 20 years ago. Expected sale price between $25M and $30M. Purchased for $165.2M in 2005. Subject to a ground lease. 776K SF Built 1990 52%…
Shoulda started a treasury company when I wrote this 😂
Bitcoin on a balance sheet is worth more than bitcoin in an ETF. Change my mind! @PrestonPysh
Wow @grok nailed this. Pretty incredible. If @ethereum is the Mike Milken of the 21st century, then @grok is the Stephen Hawking of the same era.
Mike Milken, the "Junk Bond King," revolutionized 1980s finance by popularizing high-yield bonds that gave undervalued companies access to capital, bypassing banks—amid scandals and prison time. Ethereum echoes this: it powers DeFi and smart contracts, democratizing global…
Ethereum is the Mike Milken of crypto. If you know, you know….
The founder of the largest hedge fund of all time (Citadel) is a raging $ETH bull You still have time to front run TradFi before we shatter $4,000 this week
What @dampedspring doesn’t realize is that the way he was taught to manage money has brought on secular stagnation where CEOs choose to financially engineer stocks rather than take risk in actually creating new industries for their children. A society grows old when men plant…