Troy Teslike
@TroyTeslike
Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free. Early access on Patreon.
Elon spent a lot of time on the earnings call reframing things differently.
Here’s how Bitcoin impacted Tesla’s earnings: Other income (expense), net: This line reflects the Bitcoin gain or loss based on the price change between March 31 and June 30. For Q2, it should be +$283 million, but Tesla reported +$320 million because other items were included…
Hi everyone. The chart shows Tesla’s actual sales in Europe, based on vehicle registration data from 25 countries. In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units in Europe, up 4% quarter-over-quarter, but down 29% from 78,417 units in Q2 2024.

I just spent hours reviewing the final version of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which he will sign into law in the coming days. There's a lot of important stuff related to EVs, renewable energy, and more. Here's everything you need to know: • $7,500 EV credit for new vehicles:…
Based on my research, including Tesla’s stripped-down Model 3 RWD in Mexico and the stripped-down Cybertruck Long Range RWD in the US, here’s what’s likely to be removed from the stripped-down Model Y Tesla might release soon: ❌ No heated front or rear seats ❌ No ventilated…
The table on the left shows my error rate. The one on the right shows the analyst consensus. My error rate is still lower than the consensus over the past 6, 8, 12, and 16 quarters, but the gap is narrowing. I’m not happy with that. I need more accurate results going forward,…

For maximum transparency, here’s my delivery error rate versus the analyst consensus (based on Tesla’s survey, also known as the company-compiled consensus) over the past 16 quarters. Today’s result was my largest miss in the last four years.

Tesla deliveries were down by 50,129 units in Q1 and 59,834 units in Q2 2025 year-over-year. Q3 will also be challenging, as last year’s Q3 was strong with 462,890 units delivered. However, Tesla may soon launch a stripped-down Model Y, which it hopes will improve sales.

Tesla deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025, the largest decline in the company's history. This follows a 13.0% drop in Q1 2025. Still, the decline this quarter was smaller than many, including myself, had expected.

Tesla is struggling to adapt to the new reality of lower sales. For example, sales in Canada have dropped to nearly zero, largely due to political controversy (source: cbc.ca/news/canada/te…), but Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source:…