Shanghai Macro Strategist

Rumors are just for fun. What ultimately matters is facts-and-data-driven research based a solid analytical framework. If you are a sophisticated investor and interested in my investment-oriented China research, please direct message me and we will go from there. Thanks!

Will this be enough to reinvigorate China's AI narrative, which has clearly lost momentum in recent months? Judging by today’s market reaction — with Alibaba surging 7% — investors seem to think so.

My earlier post on the potential simultaneous decline in credit demand from both the real estate and manufacturing sectors provides a fundamental explanation for the recent collapse in fixed asset investment growth.

This is the result of Beijing’s renewed enforcement of the Eight-Point Regulation, which has cast a chilling effect over the restaurant industry, as government employees now avoid dining out altogether for fear of being accused of bureaucratic extravagance.

Today’s surge in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies appears to be driven by news that the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a study session on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. The development has fueled speculation that the…

Many of you may recall the chart below, which I first created in early 2024 to illustrate Beijing’s bold credit reallocation—from the property sector to manufacturing—in an effort to reengineer China’s growth model. This strategic shift was a key reason the Chinese economy…

I remain skeptical that the capacity-cutting campaign will proceed smoothly. Much of the overcapacity problem stems from intense competition among local governments, each eager to support local industries and preserve jobs. Without strong and decisive central coordination,…

Despite the recent strength in Chinese equity benchmarks—driven largely by rallies in financials—leading tech names like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com have sold off sharply, all breaking below their April 7 lows. The growing weakness in these internet platforms…

“Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing does not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing." Isn’t that a geopolitical no-brainer?…

Today’s A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index briefly approached the 3,500 level during intraday trading, even as more than 4,100 stocks—around 76% of the market—declined. In other words, the benchmark was nearing a new high despite broad-based weakness, highlighting an…

It may come as a surprise to many investors that financials have been the best-performing sector in China’s equity market over the past two years—despite a sharp economic slowdown, weakening credit demand, and a significant narrowing of interest margins. The bullish onshore…

Despite early enthusiasm around DeepSeek, China's AI momentum appears to have stalled in recent months. China Terrific 10 has significantly underperformed US Mag 7 since, ironically, the successful US-China trade talks in Geneva. Cambricon, a key Chinese GPU maker once seen…

Insightful take by Ali Borhani @FuturEarly on the real reason why the US is scared of China. As Ali points out, China is now viewed more favorably by much of the world than the US, a shift confirmed by the latest Democracy Perception Index survey. Ali also makes a compelling…

This may not be a bad idea—Trump has already expressed interest in visiting China in the second half of the year. If he and Xi were to stand side by side at a military parade commemorating the end of World War II, it could send a powerful message. Such an image would symbolize…

In contrast to the Trump administration’s rhetoric claiming that the US and China have formally signed a trade deal, Beijing has consistently emphasized that the outcome in London was merely an agreement on a framework—one that had already been outlined in Geneva. If President…

This is a remarkable achievement by Xiaomi, especially considering the broader weakness in consumer spending. The company secured 200,000 pre-orders within just three minutes. By comparison, when Tesla launched the new Model Y in China this January, it garnered approximately…

After six months of stabilization and modest recovery, the Chinese property market is once again on the verge of another downturn. Particularly, the decline in property prices has again intensified, with prices in tier-1 cities declining 0.7% mom in May.

Apparently, no one knows exactly how the 55% tariffs were calculated.

Comparison of China’s Statements Following the Geneva and London Talks: May 12 (Geneva): “The talks were candid, in-depth, and constructive, achieving substantial progress and reaching important consensus.” June 11 (London): “The two sides engaged in candid and in-depth…

China makes more drones in a day than the United States makes in a year.

Yuyuantantian, a media outlet affiliated with China’s state broadcaster, just published an article offering Beijing’s perspective on the Trump-Xi call that took place yesterday. The piece sheds light on President Xi’s remark during the call: “The US side should acknowledge the…