Sebastian
@SebKrog
I write about undiscovered, cheap and growing Microcaps on my Blog.
New deep-dive out: a low-risk, high-upside razor-razorblade play: • Royalty ramp = margin expansion + faster EPS growth • Activist on the board • Trading at just 7 × FCF Read the full write-up here: treasure-hunting.co/p/an-overlooke…
Substack is already reshaping the investment landscape, particularly in microcaps—and its influence is only growing.
#CreatorEconomy funktioniert nicht nur mit freizügigen Bildern: Die Content-Plattform #Substack, auf der sich auch großartige #Aktien-Deep-Dives finden, hatte im Juni mehr Visits als die journalistischen Ikonen @WSJ und @CBSNews.
It rarely makes sense to chase a stock that runs away from you. Not only are there plenty of other opportunities out there, but in 90% of cases, the same stock will eventually give you a second chance to buy it cheaply
This was a great interview.
I had an amazing conversation with the GOAT @EightTrack180. We discussed how he built a $100M+ portfolio and explored two case studies, $THEON.AS and $NREST.ST. 🎧 Spotify: creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/va… 📺 YouTube: youtu.be/UPwAGQ2dgIM
More often than not, when this play out in practice, it looks somewhat like this: 1. No one cares about the stock 2. New management lies out plan --> first write-ups appear 3. New plan shows uplift in earnings --> shares roar 4. Management transitions into growth mode and…
Some thoughts on turnarounds Most micro‑caps that qualify as “turnarounds” share a common pattern: a new CEO arrives with a fresh strategy—often divesting an under‑performing division—to steer the company in a new direction. 1. The “Unscreenable” Phase Turnarounds typically…
The moat or the achilles heel of every microcap is the management.
If you’re investing in microcaps, stop hunting for moats. Start finding great capital allocators. Over time, they build the moat.
What is your go to LLM for research? Feel free to elaborate in the comments why.
Joining the discussion. Judging by actions is obviously ideal, but in many microcaps, when new management comes in, there's often little to evaluate. They might have a strong resume, but may have never served as CEO of a public company. If you're willing to speak with them and…
After a few thousand meetings with mgmt, I've learned that the best way to assess them is not through words, but their actions They'll say whatever words that'll sound good.
At the end of last year, I bought two Canadian microcaps. One had great short-term potential, but I wasn’t particularly excited about the opportunity. The other business, however, felt more appealing to me—though I couldn’t quite explain why. I sized both positions at roughly 5%…
Some thoughts on turnarounds Most micro‑caps that qualify as “turnarounds” share a common pattern: a new CEO arrives with a fresh strategy—often divesting an under‑performing division—to steer the company in a new direction. 1. The “Unscreenable” Phase Turnarounds typically…
In dem heutigen Podcast sind gleich zwei unserer beliebtesten Gäste dabei: @SebKrog und @FinSkeptic. Zusammen diskutieren wir über folgende Themen: •Geduld & Abwägen… open.spotify.com/episode/2uuTge…
To celebrate one year of running my paid blog, I’m offering a 7-day free trial. If you’re interested, feel free to send me a DM.
Totally agree with David here. I know more investors that have started out very concentrated and have become more diversified over time than vice versa. Also I had experiences were 5% position have turned into big winners — and have outperformed the „high conviction“ bets.
I’d add two more especially risky pieces of advice to the list, especially when combined: "diversification is protection against ignorance" and "be greedy when others are fearful." After reading a few investing classics and annual reports, many new investors assume they know…
Not a good year so far, with -8.5%. Full review here: treasure-hunting.co/p/half-year-20…
Brilliant read. For 90% of microcaps time works against you, they are one hit wonders. You can make money with them if you are the first to buy and the first to sell. For the 10% you likely get the chance to buy them after discovery and during their first disappointment.
New Article Short-term stock prices are driven by emotion, sentiment, and expectations. Long-term stock prices are driven by fundamentals. Small stocks are roller coasters. Learn how to ride them. microcapclub.com/small-stocks-a…
I tend to fall in the "the best opportunities are not screenable" camp — but maybe that is an overstatement. Take $CPH.TO for example, it would have popped up on every "low EV/EBITDA" screen for years and has worked out beautifully.
I agree and call me crazy but I also actually want to hear how the CEO talks/ response to the questions (tonality, demeanor etc.) Not just read it.
Yess. For the smaller subset of stocks I follow that have earnings calls, IMO it's one of the quickest ways to grasp the (qualitative) nuances of the business, how management thinks, what it promises vs. delivers, as well as the pulse of investor sentiment. I usually start from…
95% of the value add of earnings calls is the Q&A. Earnings calls should be: 5-10 minutes of prepared remarks 0 minutes on the financials (we know how to read) 45 minutes of Q&A