Bemused Beaver

My two pieces with MLI. 1) laying out the need for Canadian grand strategy, and how the lack of one is preventing us from concentrating on our core interests: Canada’s grand strategic deficit: David Scheidl for Inside Policy | Macdonald-Laurier Institute (macdonaldlaurier.ca)

Admirably clear about geopolitical reality. Canada's geography and commercial tightness with the US constrains any real pivot we would care to make. Yet, as the author notes, this need not be a net strategic negative for Canada. Canada yet retains the ability to make this work.

Really interesting discussion today on @schoolofwarpod with @WillSomUSA. We discuss what it takes to make munitions in America in 2025. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ep-…

Really loving this approach to containing China of tariffing our best regional allies into a recession, while simultaneously demanding that they increase their defense expenditures.

Quite so. Present frictions with the USA remain solvable. The threat from the PRC is not, absent a concerted campaign to root out their influence from Cdn politics and society, and ensure Canada is no longer a permissive environment for PRC intimidation and influence campaigns

The Sino-Russian alliance—buttressed by North Korea and Iran—is consolidating. One more reason the current talk in Washington about disaggregating the Atlantic and the Pacific theaters makes no geostrategic sense. In reality, the adversary gets a vote. asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukrai…

"The act of writing the thing is the same thing as the thinking of it. If you can’t write it, you haven’t actually thought it.” Read, study, contemplate, posit, detail, explain, speak, pursue, rebut, advance, and then rise from just a person or politician to the level of a…

The red flag here, as highlighted in the Clingendael report, is that if Hutchison Port Holdings is considered a Chinese company, then 73.3% of Rotterdam's deepsea container terminal activity is owned by Chinese entities. And it isn’t just Rotterdam but ports all across Europe…

Excellent piece. Strategic depth an important concept to understand in modern context. Plenty that can be done to shape the prospective battlefield in advance, and robust strategic depth could contribute to deterring a major war. Useful concept for middle powers (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇵🇱🇬🇧🇯🇵)too!

Signal to noise ratio is a critical spec for NVGs. It affects how grainy the image is. The Army has set a legit req to give soldiers world-class kit. One of the reasons the CAF gets screwed so often is our system is so vulnerable to this emotional manipulation by failed bidders.

Finland's preparation for war: “All our operational centres have 30 metres of granite on top of them. Russia can drop a nuclear bomb, and you would notice it but survive. We have bomb shelters for 4.4mn people. All our fighter jets are under 30m of granite too.” "Finland is also…

Imperial Japan did far less to help Nazi Germany against the Soviets than than what China, Russia, and North Korea have provided to Iran. Does that mean that the World War II Axis did not actually count as an axis? What does "axis" even mean if the original Axis wasn't an axis?

The problem is that there are no consequences for failing to meet NATO's capability targets. By disclosing them publicly, there would be greater domestic and international pressure on laggards.

We should think of drones today like jet aircraft in the 1950s, when engineers hoped they'd design something dominant for a few years and would settle for relevant for the same span. Some exceptions may be used for decades. But expecting any specific one to is a fool's game.

Well said. Plentiful opportunities abound for Canada to establish itself as a genuinely respected power in its own right, nested within a stronger, more capable, and more self sufficient West

A weaker Iran, less able to support Russias war is in the interest of broader West. Hopefully this does result in an abandonment of its nuclear program. Credible deterrence means both material and willpower capacity, which US has now demonstrated that it will act. Hopeful sign.

Stayed up late with @Doranimated to break down the strikes and their likely consequences on @schoolofwarpod: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ep-…

NEW: Adversary Entente Task Force Update, June 18, 2025 | Key Takeaways + Full Report⬇️(1/2) Russia offers to mediate Israel-Iran talks: Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to mediate Iran-Israeli talks following the onset of the Iran-Israeli war on June 13. Neither Iran,…

I'm just begging people to consider that a "multipolar" world order will see *more* of these kinds of wars not fewer

Indeed. Plausible there is a major war this decade. And always a lag btwn defence dollars being injected and usable capability acquired. Ditto on expanding defence industry. A real sense of urgency needed to develop a war ready military...

Strongly concur. The world into which we are entering is one of fraught geopolitical competition against a number of hostile adversaries that primarily respect strength. De-escalation and compromise have their place in statecraft, but only from a position of strength.