Forecasting Research Institute
@Research_FRI
Research institute focused on developing forecasting methods to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues, co-founded by chief scientist Philip Tetlock.
We just published our latest pre-print: forecasting LLM-enabled biosecurity risks and the efficacy of safeguards Read about our findings on the FRI Substack: forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/forecasting-…
@Research_FRI releases new study on risks of bio-engineered epidemics. forecastingresearch.org/ai-enabled-bio… Subject-matter specialists & "superforecaster" generalists expected risks to rise substantially if LLMs passed key virology-lab competency tests. They also thought LLMs would not attain…
Can we predict the next crisis? Forecasting for Nuclear Risk Reduction Join ONN for a webinar on how forecasting can support nuclear risk decisions featuring experts from @Research_FRI, @swift_centre & @ConfidoInstitut. 📅 8 July, 15:00 CEST 🎟️ Register: zoom.us/webinar/regist…
An FRI (@Research_FRI) expert forecasting panel will be surveyed monthly on evolution of AI capabilities & economic impacts of AI. What should we be asking them? Please share nominations of questions here: forecastingresearch.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3B…