QF Research
@ResearchQf
PM at large institutions over 20Y. Your investments decisions are your responsibility. DYODD. Analyze distributionally but non-deterministically.
1) A reminder how actually insane the runup to 2000 dotcom peak really was. $VRSN peaked at > 300x P/T12M rev. $JDSU $PMCS hit 100x. Remember ART Tech? 180x. $ZICA (Chinese text entry on handsets)? 700x. With 10-30% corrections every M or 2 as 100's stocks rose 50x 100x or ...
Based on latest and not inconsistent FT, BN & AFP reports today, a bullish but possible outcome for EU could be: EU retreats to 15% from 10% reciprocal as long as sectoral, current and future, are limited. Could make sense, given EU's prior positions. Doubt EU would accept 15%…
2) I'd much rather chat about whole slew of very interesting AI related tech & datapoints. Please let this be the endgame so don't have to keep an eye on this. Not that other countries aren't important, but today's key letters are to Japan, Korea and Thailand. We import $350M…
1) As far as I can tell, beyond 15% reciprocal and 15% auto tariffs (which is actually halving 25% new auto tariffs and adding 2.5% prior tariffs), NHK is reporting metal tariffs will stay at 50%. Btw UK gets 10% for first 100K autos but 25% kicks in above 100K. No details on…
1) An LDP segment with Akazawa, who began trade talks for Japan last week. Most interesting news on the talks that I've seen. A few comments, as translated by Grok and Gemini. - Japan's position is elimination of sectoral and reciprocal tariffs. If that's off the table from the…
On IMO P6 (without going into too much detail about our setup), the model "knew" it didn't have a correct solution. The model knowing when it didn't know was one of the early signs of life that made us excited about the underlying research direction!
One piece of info that seems important to me in terms of forecasting usefulness of new AI models for mathematics: did the gold-medal-winning models, which did not solve IMO problem 6, submit incorrect answers for it? 🧵