RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

Policy Points: Trump hosts Philippine President Marcos and meets GOP lawmakers as Congress races to move spending bills. Senate confirms judges and DEA head, eyes a MilCon-VA procedural vote. House votes on econ dev and Great Lakes bills. Recess looms, gridlock grows.

As $GLD and #GOLD attempt to breakout, they have the seasonal trade winds at their backs.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Index hit the skids in July. Two things stood out to us. First, employment remains weak, with the subindex tumbling to -16. Second, capital spending plans softened to -19 despite recent momentum behind OBBB.

Policy Points: Trump lunches with VP Vance as the Hill braces for a packed final week before recess: crypto, immigration, and electricity demand top the docket. Senate gears up for DEA vote. House advances FY25 FSGG cuts and tees up votes on ZIP codes and China risk studies.

Neil at @RenMacLLC: Housing is weak. As inventories rise home prices have been deflating across the country. Many recent buyers assumed they’d be refinancing into lower rates by now. That has not happened and as a result, we’re seeing more homeowners put their homes up for…

Crypto's Legislative Moment - Steve Pavlick open.spotify.com/episode/4nDRgP…

Builders, Beware - Neil Dutta open.spotify.com/episode/4nDRgP…

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Shutdown Surprise Play - Jeff deGraaf open.spotify.com/episode/4nDRgP…

Jeff deGraaf caught up w/ @carlquintanilla and @SaraEisen this morning to talk about seasonals and shifts RenMac making in portfolios. cnb.cx/4lUpGeE

Interesting that despite the improvement in UMich Consumer Sentiment, attitudes about labor market worsened slightly and expectations over household income during the next year remain weak.

Anywhere you are on this chart is about the NEXT 3-months from a seasonal perspective. From here through mid-October, seasonal sledding is rough for Tech $XLK

🚨New Masters in Business podcast with @RenMacLLC @Ritholtz. Really outstanding point about investment time horizons near the end bloomberg.com/news/audio/202…

Homebuilders are going to be doing less. Single-family building permits continue to decline. In June, single-family housing permits fell 5%, the 3rd decline in the last four months. This year, so six months, single-family permits have declined at a 33.6% annualized rate.

Neil at @RenMacLLC: We have a Shadow Fed Chair already. What we don’t need is a Chairman in Name Only.