Robert A. Pape

Our Jan 2024 CPOST study on Campus Unrest explains Israel’s growing American demographic problem. Surveying 5000 undergraduates and 5000 American adults: over 40yrs are still pro-Israel, but under 40yrs hold negative views of Israel: nytimes.com/2025/07/06/opi…

Drumbeats for more war against Iran already underway ://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/opinion/bolton-iran-nuclear.html

Tuesday, July 29 at 5:30pm, I will be speaking at The Middle East on Edge: What’s Next for Iran, Israel, and the Region | Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Great panel and discussion coming. Open to the public! RSVP for seats or Zoom. globalaffairs.org/events/middle-…

It's now evident that the outcomes predicted in my Foreign Affairs article about the strategic consequences of bombing Iran have materialized. The act of bombing has not only bolstered support for the Iranian regime but also proved ineffective in eradicating Iran's enriched…

The Middle East is edging closer to a potentially catastrophic nuclear conflict, presenting unprecedented challenges compared to the Cold War era. To avert these looming dangers, a transformative shift in America's nuclear policy is imperative. Read more about this critical…

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My new piece on why Middle East is moving closer to the brink of nuclear war in ways that are dangerous and harder to anticipate than during the Cold War.  To prevent the historic new risks, America needs to make a historic change in its nuclear doctrine: chicagotribune.com/2025/07/20/opi…

Violence is a big mistake. Non violent protests produced powerful civil rights legislation, Medicare in early 1960s. Violent protests followed, ushering in Nixon and law and order Republicans. Go to Standunited.media to push in a positive direction! axios.com/2025/07/07/dem…

All leaders - Democrats and Republicans— should immediately condemn violence against ICE agents. This has the hallmarks of a coordinated team attack, which crosses a new threshold. We are on the slippery slope. Go to Standunited.media. cbsnews.com/texas/news/off…

Loss of best intel was always the likely consequence of bombing Iran’s nuclear program, greatly obscuring estimates of nuclear breakout. Suspicion may well lead to more war://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3316649/iran-suspends-cooperation-un-nuclear-watchdog-iaea

As dust settles in Iran, #4 of 5: Will the war lead to regime change in Iran?  No, the bombing has strengthened the regime as many thousands took to the street to protest Western military intervention.  Air power alone never toppled a regime Iran is more data for 100 year trend

As dust settles in Iran, #3 of 5: What does this war mean to Iran?  For Iran, the bombing shows nuclear weapons are only reliable option to deter endless attacks by Israel and the US whenever they want.  Iraq had no bomb, eventually conquered -- a lesson the bombing drove home.

As dust settles in Iran, #2 of 5: Will the ceasefire hold?  Ceasefire will last as long as Israel keeps it.  Israel bombed on June 12 when the US and Iran looked close to a deal.  Likely would derail serious negotiations again.

As dust settles in Iran, the key lessons are in line with Bombing to Win:  Air Power and Coercion in War. #1 of 5: Bombing was a strategic mistake.  Minimal tactical damage No evidence Iran set back from turning 60% HEU into a nuclear bomb.  Virtually same timeline as before.

CPOST's senior research director Keven Ruby just showed me this fascinating account of the covert arms race btn Bombs and Concrete-- might explain failure of 30k lb bombs to obliterate Fordo: yahoo.com/news/first-ame…

A short version of Postol's excellent technical analysis showing how elbow air shafts almost certainly prevented US bombs from destroying Fordo: youtube.com/watch?v=TriASB…

The best technical analysis so far showing how easy it was for Iran to move the 60% HEU and hard for US bombs to destroy the key chambers at Fordo, esp min 25-29 and 40-46: google.com/search?sca_esv…

Netanyahu is wrong that Libya is a model of regime change for Iran. The huge city of Benghazi was already in massive revolt BEFORE air power smashed Qaddafi’s troops trying to quell it. Nothing close in Iran. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…

I was on CNN on Trump's controversial absence from the Minnesota funeral for victims of horrific political violence: google.com/url?q=https://…

Predictably, Iran is immediately salvaging enrichment equipment as satellite images appear to show excavators and bulldozers at work at Iran's bombed-out nuclear site businessinsider.com/satellite-imag… via @businessinsider