Bauncey Chillups
@PrefShares
Curious.
There is no feeling more infuriating than everything you've been wanting to buy gapping up 12% on earnings.
It’s amazing how every organization run by the government is literally falling apart. Air Traffic Control, DMV, Post Office, etc. I can’t think of a better argument for keeping government out people’s lives.
"The first gulp from the glass of natural sciences will turn you into an atheist, but at the bottom of the glass God is waiting for you". — Werner Heisenberg
I’m not religious, but as I study the models powering chatgpt and realize how stupidly simple this technology is compared to the complexity of the human brain, I can’t help but wonder how something so profoundly powerful is even possible. OpenAI is spending >$13 billion on…
o3-pro takes like 20x the time to respond that Gemini 2.5 pro does... and Gemini is ranked higher on lmarena and seems to give me similar quality answers. Why use o3/chatGPT?
The same people will talk about the value of compounding and then quite literally ignore the value of compounding by quoting small differences in IRR over a very long time period. 11.6% CAGR = 8,100x 9.3% CAGR = 1,470x You’d have almost 6 times as much money if you had the…
"If you bought the S&P 500 at a P/E of 5.3x in 1917, and sold it in 1999 at a P/E of 34x, your annual return would have been 11.6%. Only 2.3% p.a. came from the massive increase in P/E. The rest of your return came from the companies’ earnings and reinvestments." - Terry Smith…
the game is 1600 years old there are only so many jokes
It’s really game over long-term. Both sides just going to spend us into oblivion. Deficits were Pandora’s box. Keynesianism ~may~ work if anyone was ever willing to take foot off the gas. Clearly not politically feasible.

Anyone have access to @Borlaug_ substack posts? Trying to read the CRO one, and he seems to have deactivated subscriptions (so it won’t let me subscribe to read). If anyone has the post, I’d love to read it. @Borlaug_ — I dm’ed you, but would love to be able to pay to read…
Have been completely unwilling to touch apparel / consumer brands. Always a reason: “not connecting to Gen Z, stale ideas, creative team lacking… etc.” The simple issue is that the internet blew up the legacy moats of most consumer brands. Brands reduce search costs, and…
Some pretty rough insider transcripts from @AlphaSenseInc on $LULU
Google Search + Gemini a 0 by 2030. YouTube and GCP collectively worth under $250B in 5 years. Someone come get your man.
Coatue thinks Google won't be one of the top 40 tech companies in 2030, yet they use Google Drive to host the deck...@plaffont care to chime in?
Just vibe-coded a web app this weekend. Wild. Zero prior coding experience.
AI is a platform level capability, not a premium add on. Copilot, Agentforce, Firefly all getting it wrong. Give it away.
Models Not Commodities. Arms Race. Most Resources. Lowest Cost. Winner.
Does anyone have a sharp take on $goog here? I mean like no bullshit, you really think you know what's going on here. If so, please comment in 10 words or less for public benefit.
being long $GOOGL on a Waymo thesis is like betting on a football team because you like the kicker
What is the best hedge to long $GOOGL on Waymo thesis?
Anyone willing to share the MoffettNathanson piece on YouTube being worth $550B?
feels like we are at peak “he wants to make deals” sentiment still very bearish so not shocked if we move a little higher, but will be very surprised if we hold north of 20.5x forward on the SPY
Trump is both a dealmaker and someone who has been complaining about our trade deficit since the 80s and is ideologically committed to “fixing” it. The second the market starts discounting 100% probability of either stance, should probably fade it.
The stock is up **checks notes** 61% since April 21, 2023. — “We’ve been saying for two years: they have all the pieces — the data, the cash, the infrastructure. But here we are, two years later, and the story hasn’t changed. At some point, you have to ask: what’s going to be…
$GOOG's call just wrapped up. Stock started the call up 3.5% and finished the call up 4.5%. • Stock up because the results and guidance were ahead of whispers that Search was going to be a miss. • The Long-Term: To stay bullish on Google, you either have to believe earnings…