Oliver Pfäuti

@PfaeutiEcon

AP @UTAustinEcon. Formerly @unibern, @GESSuniMannheim / Macro, Monetary, Heterogeneity, Deviations from Rational Expectations

Joined March 2019

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Oliver Pfäuti@PfaeutiEcon · Jan 11, 2024

That the inflation decrease has slowed recently, gives me a good excuse to write a short thread about my paper "𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬" which offers a potential explanation for these dynamics.

PfaeutiEcon's tweet image. That the inflation decrease has slowed recently, gives me a good excuse to write a short thread about my paper

"𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬"

which offers a potential explanation for these dynamics.

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CEPR@cepr_org · Jul 22

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20473 Being and Consciousness: Fiscal Attitudes according to HANK @christianbaye13, @econ_stardust, Gernot Müller @uni_tue, @FSeyrich ow.ly/tnvS50WssB8 #CEPR_MEF #EconTwitter

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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@EMPCT_MacroTX · Jul 15

How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions New blog post by Chris Boehm and @KronerNiklas (UT graduate @UTAustinEcon 🤟) based on paper recently published in @RevEconStudies. Short summary below ⬇️

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Oliver Pfäuti Retweeted

Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli@nmaffeifaccioli · Jun 30

New WP! #econtwitter We establish five facts about how households, firms, social partners (employer organizations and trade unions) and economists form inflation expectations, using data from a harmonized quarterly survey in Norway over 2002–2024. Link: norges-bank.no/en/news-events…

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SED Meeting@SEDmeeting · Jun 25

Our Annual Meeting in beautiful Copenhagen is about to start 🥁!! Looking forward to seeing everyone tomorrow morning! #SED2025 Check out the program here: editorialexpress.com/conference/SED…

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Julieta Caunedo@juli_caunedo · Jun 25

And the program is now closed! Looking forward to a wonderful @SEDmeeting editorialexpress.com/conference/SED…

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Isaac Baley@isaacbaley · Jun 19

Macro Fluctuations with Micro Frictions (MFMF) at the @bse_barcelona Summer Forum @jandres_blanco @jan_eeckhout @Simon_Mongey

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Oliver Pfäuti@PfaeutiEcon · Jun 8

New evidence on what moves price-setting 👇

SSaeed@saeedamenfx · Jun 7

Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… #QuantLinkADay

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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@EMPCT_MacroTX · Jun 4

How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making New blog post by Oli Coibion, @ErwanGautier17 and Frédérique Savignac. Short summary follows ⬇️

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Oliver Pfäuti@PfaeutiEcon · Jun 2

New EMPCT working paper: Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End? New working paper by Oli Coibion and @YGorodnichenko Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/research/

NNBER@nberpubs · Jun 1

Unanchored inflation expectations make us very susceptible to another surge in inflation, from Olivier Coibion and @YGorodnichenko nber.org/papers/w33858

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Isaac Baley@isaacbaley · May 30

Exciting lineup for the #bsesummerforum workshop "Macro Fluctuations with Micro Frictions" on June 19-20 Co-organized with the best team: @jan_eeckhout @Simon_Mongey @jandres_blanco @bse_barcelona More info on our and other workshops here: bse.eu/summer-forum/

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CEPR@cepr_org · May 24

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20274 #Inflation, Expectations and #MonetaryPolicy: What Have We Learned and to What End? Olivier Coibion @UTAustinEcon, @YGorodnichenko @berkeleyecon ow.ly/OFqs50VVsY3 #CEPR_MEF #CEPR_MG #EconTwitter

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Oliver Pfäuti@PfaeutiEcon · May 23

It took a while, but we finally have a new (heavily revised) version out: nber.org/papers/w32305 @FSeyrich

FFabian Seyrich@FSeyrich · Apr 12, 2024

Very happy to see this out as my first NBER working paper! We (@PfaeutiEcon, Jonathan Zinman, and I) study how heterogeneity in cognitive skills and overconfidence about those skills matters for observed household heterogeneity, the macroeconomy and fiscal policy. Short thread:

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Oliver Pfäuti@PfaeutiEcon · May 23

Want to know more about firms' inflation expectations during the recent inflation surge? And how do their expectations correlate w/ wage expectations and firms' price setting? Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @ErwanGautier17, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/research/

EEmpirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@EMPCT_MacroTX · May 21

New paper on French firm's inflation expectations by Oli Coibion and co-authors!

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NBER@nberpubs · May 20

A survey of French firm's inflation expectations that predate inflation spikes provides evidence on the anchoring of expectations during an inflation surge and the relevance of expectations for firms' decisions, from @ErwanGautier17, Frédérique Savignac, and Olivier Coibion…

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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@EMPCT_MacroTX · Apr 29

What's happening with inflation expectations? Two often used household surveys disagree: - the Michigan MSC says inf expectations are up - the NY Fed SCE says they're not Which one is it? New blog by Oli Coibion and @YGorodnichenko says: MSC is right! Find out why ⬇️

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Oliver Pfäuti@PfaeutiEcon · Apr 25

After a great first day of our conference yesterday, we are looking forward to an exciting second day!

EEmpirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@EMPCT_MacroTX · Apr 23

And on the second day, we'll have (among others): @mathpedemonte, @A_Fieldhouse, @alonso_vilaco, @tradewartracker, @hyunju_econ, @Hugo_Lhu, @elpuntoderocio, @LeviGCrews

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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@EMPCT_MacroTX · Apr 23

Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers and discussants (see program below) First day with @alpsimsek_econ, @KronerNiklas, @yoonjoo_jo, @sung_yeji, @PfaeutiEcon, @virgiliu79, @SShenEcon (+ some not on here)

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Javier Turén R@javier_turen · Apr 16

📢📊Can professional forecasters be "Rationally Inactive"? Along with the great @isaacbaley we wrote a VOXEU Column to discuss the main findings of our recent paper "Lumpy Forecasts". cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…

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The Review of Economic Studies@RevEconStudies · Apr 3

The recently accepted paper of Boehm and @KronerNiklas demonstrates that shocks that drive the US business cycle also drive the global financial cycle. restud.com/the-us-economi…

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Florin Bilbiie 🇪🇺 🇺🇦@FlorinBilbiie · Mar 31

Unspeakably excited to share HANKSSON, joint work w/ (lucky me!) @sigurdgal @RefetGurkaynak M. Mæhlum K. Molnar A key question of the HANK literature: Does (household) heterogeneity amplify the aggregate effects of demand policies and shocks? Well ... 1/n tinyurl.com/3n7sx842

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