Peter Turchin
@Peter_Turchin
Cliodynamics, Social and Cultural Evolution Project Leader, Complexity Science Hub, Vienna Blog: http://peterturchin.substack.com/
My new trade book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration Published on June 13, 2023 by Penguin Random House in US and Allen Lane in UK penguinrandomhouse.com/books/703238/e…
Mainstream economists now call for industrial policy. This is a sea change compared to even 10 years ago. nytimes.com/2025/07/14/opi…
Will China replace USA as the next hegemonic power? It depends on whether it can maintain its sociopolitical stability api.omarshehata.me/substack-proxy…
Should make a meme like this summarizing @Peter_Turchin : Hard times create pro-social elites; pro-social elites create good times; good times create selfish elites; selfish elites create elite overproduction; elite overproduction creates hard times. Less funny but more accurate.
As per @Peter_Turchin !
Zohran Mamdani’s rise is fueled by downwardly mobile urban millennials who feel failed by the system and want to tear it down. But their politics may be too radical to win over the growing, suburban middle class Democrats need in other parts of the country.
@Musa_alGharbi ‘s book is incredibly insightful & pairs well with @mgurri ‘s Revolt of the Public & @Peter_Turchin ‘s End Times. Turchin details how “elite overproduction” is a leading indicator of political disintegration, along with popular immiseration. All are complementary.
I am an avid mushroom-hunter, but this an "extreme sport" version Actually, when we were vacationing in South Italy, I was told that every year some mushroom hunters fall to their death... Gathering mushrooms in the Kumano valley in Kii Province (1860) by Utagawa Hiroshige II
New post: An Update and a Poll api.omarshehata.me/substack-proxy…
The Mamdani Moment is a perfect illustration for Chapter 4 of End Times!
Peter Turchin warned of “elite overproduction”: too many graduates chasing too few jobs. Now it’s fuelling a political uprising — led not by the poor, but by the priced-out professionals. My column on the Mamdani moment:- thetimes.com/article/e78bf0…