Peter Berezin

I’m not sure how this is supposed to work, given the massive imbalance between the two sides in auto trade. I guess the Europeans are hoping that the quotas are phased in gradually, that is, after Trump has left office.

Growth fell short of potential among the major DM economies in June.

The fact that we are having this debate at the dawn of the AI age rather than thousands of years in the future suggests that there will not be many conscious observers in the future (see Section XII, page 29 for details). bcaresearch.com/sites/default/…

Full agenda for BCA's Annual Conference on Oct 22 are now available. Some amazing speakers: Stephen Miran, Peter Levin, Karen Harris, Francois Trahan, Zach Schreiber, Anna Wong and many more. For detals and to register: tinyurl.com/2jp7wt7m

No 🌮 if stocks don’t fall, but stocks won’t fall if investors expect 🌮

Waller is right. Despite today’s “great” retail sales report, real sales are still below where they were last December. Housing is in shambles. The Fed should be cutting rates.

NEW PODCAST: @PeterBerezinBCA On Finding The Courage To Be A Contrarian thefelderreport.com/2025/07/16/pet…

It doesn't make sense for Trump to fire Powell. If the economy turns down, Trump will need Powell as a foil. Much smarter just to keep threatening to fire Powell for doing a horrible job.

After a strong start in June, "big data" estimates of real retail sales gleaned from card payments, foot traffic, etc relapsed towards the end of the month, perhaps as tariff-related price hikes started to kick in.

Mexican President Sheinbaum Opposes US Tariffs on Tomatoes and Plans to Meet with Tomato Producers Next Week to Discuss Possible Actions 🇲🇽🍅

Tariff reality check: Retail prices of imported goods (and close domestic substitutes) have, in fact, risen more than other prices. Always trust economists!

While stocks continue to ignore Liberation Day 2.0, the CPI swap market is not so complacent. It has priced in higher inflation over the past few days; 1-year swaps now expect CPI inflation to be 0.9 percentage points higher in 12 months than it was in May, an increase of 0.2…

Today’s update of the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker showed that wage growth for job switchers has fallen below that of job stayers. With labor shortages now largely gone, unemployment is at risk of rising.

A repeat of Liberation Day, except this time financial markets aren’t taking Trump seriously… but because they aren’t taking him seriously, Trump has little incentive to back down… which means that markets will have to take him (semi) seriously.

We all know who’s next

I like how they wrote the letters using Trump’s weird capitalization style.