PRISME (@prismeorg.bsky.social)

“The window for diplomacy narrowed, if not slammed shut. The memo revisits Iran’s strategic calculus at the time of Muscat talks and considers how rapidly evolving regional & global landscape, incl renewed threats of force, is reshaping Tehran’s nuclear options—and Washington’s.”

Diplomats in Gulf (& far beyond) mourn “escalation” yet ignore structural privilege behind Israel’s impunity. Castelli unpacks discursive choreography shielding Israel’s nuclear status—while Iran remains under scrutiny. A perfect companion to Elbahtimy’s call for nuclear equity

Why have Gulf states fallen increasingly silent on Israel’s nuclear arsenal—even as they have decried proliferation elsewhere? Ludovica Castelli’s sharp memo explores this strategic ambiguity, where opacity is tolerated or even rewarded and diplomacy becomes tacit complicity.

Selective silence is a powerful tool. Ludovica Castelli reveals how Gulf states’ diplomacy avoids the “Israel nuclear” question—shielding opacity, enabling asymmetry. This is more than rhetoric. It contributes to shaping regional order. @LudovicaCastel5 prismeinitiative.org/blog/gulf-stat…

Some key insights: “The most pragmatic path forward is one of segmented reciprocity (…) + “As highlighted in the broader #SALAM memo series, decentering the West’s securitized framing and enabling inclusive diplomacy is essential for long-term stability”

Iran’s nuclear strategy is shaped by mistrust, military threats & shifting alliances. In this new SALAM memo, Javad Heiran-Nia & Sharare Abdolhossein Zade argue: diplomacy must come first—before the spiral becomes irreversible. Read here: prismeinitiative.org/blog/navigatin… @J_Heirannia

SIPRI's @TyttiErasto argues for alternative paths in the Gulf in this @PRISMEorg paper ⬇️

Recent framing of Iran as a threat to Europe despite limited missile range & lack of hostility reflects partial alignment w/ US policy incl. in parallel leniency toward Israel which damages credibility on international stage & accelerates erosion of global norms, @HFayet argues

A very insightful piece! “The rhetorical shift is both a signal to adversaries and a form of performative deterrence that mirrors escalation observed elsewhere, notably in nuclear-armed states.”

Héloïse Fayet unpacks Iran’s evolving nuclear rhetoric, reflecting deep strategic recalibration “in response to erosion of its conventional deterrence, heightened regional insecurity, & perceived failure of international non-proliferation regime” @HFayet prismeinitiative.org/blog/evolving-…

Almuntaser Albalawi also argues for broader regional engagement: “Gulf Arab states—particularly since the rapprochement with Iran—have both the incentives and opportunity to take a more active role in promoting sustainable, regionally owned solutions to nuclear risks” @AlAlbluwi

Arms Control in the #MiddleEast keeps falling short. Why? Is the #nuclear proliferation landscape shifting -and are regional perspectives changing too? I take a closer look in my latest piece for @PRISMEorg. Grateful to @esoubrier and Coralie Pison Hindawi for their input.

New #SALAM memo by Almuntaser Albalawi: From Asymmetry to Autonomy → a powerful rethink of Middle East arms control, spotlighting reciprocity, inclusivity, agency & normativity across regional nuclear politics. #NonProliferation #MiddleEast prismeinitiative.org/blog/asymmetry…

When international law is sidelined and great powers only escalate, accelerating norm erosion, regional actors face a choice: wait and react, or lead and reshape the game. @TyttiErasto latest SALAM memo urges the latter, with a plan grounded in realism and #restraint 👇 @SIPRIorg

As U.S. support to Israel accelerates, systematically violating international law and pushing diplomacy to the brink, what if Iran and Gulf Arab states refused to be held hostage by global power games, and started setting their own norms and rules?

Israel’s 13 June strikes on Iran show how coercive counter-proliferation can spiral into endless war. Tytti Erästö’s new #SALAM memo maps a different path: Gulf-led regional non-proliferation cooperation. prismeinitiative.org/blog/israeli-a… @TyttiErasto @SIPRIorg

What causes “nuclear disorder” in the Middle East? In a piece that strikingly echoes today’s headlines, Elbahtimy flips the script and traces 3 root causes: - Selective norms & non-proliferation - Coercive enforcement - Suppressed aspirations for modernity & dignity

As Israeli strikes on Iran reignite fears of escalation, Hassan Elbahtimy’s new analysis challenges the myth of Middle East “nuclear exceptionalism.” Who really sustains nuclear disorder in the region?

We’re thrilled to launch a new SALAM blog series on nuclear politics in and with the MENA region — starting with a powerful contribution from Hassan Elbahtimy | prismeinitiative.org/blog/middle-ea…

🚨 CALL FOR PROPOSALS 🚨 We’re thrilled to announce a new SALAM workshop (online) on Sectarianism & Militarization in the Middle East, in collaboration with @ProjectSEPAD. Apply now to join this important conversation (250-word abstracts before May 15)! All info here 👇