New York Fed Research
@NYFedResearch
Original research, scholarly content, data, surveys, and economic analysis of the Research Group of @NewYorkFed. Home to research centers #AMEC and #NYFedCMD.
NEW YORK FED STAFF NOWCAST 2025:Q2 → 1.7% 2025:Q3 → 2.4% nyfed.org/3LbPEur #AMEC
The average likelihood of being able to come up with $2,000 if an unexpected need were to arise within the next month increased slightly to 63.1% from its series low of 62.7%, according to the June SCE Credit Access Survey. #NYFedCMD nyfed.org/38YSA7v
SCE CREDIT ACCESS SURVEY - JUNE 2025 The average rejection rate for mortgage refinance requests fell to 14.6% in June from 41.8% in February, according to the latest survey. #NYFedCMD nyfed.org/2KfNKwF
NEW YORK FED STAFF NOWCAST 2025:Q2 → 1.7% 2025:Q3 → 2.4% nyfed.org/3LbPEur #AMEC
RESERVE DEMAND ELASTICITY | July 2025 The elasticity of the federal funds rate to reserve changes is very small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. The estimate suggests that reserves remain abundant. nyfed.org/3A5Adl9
Out now – our latest @SSRN eJournal Subscribe to the quarterly newsletter to keep up with announcements and new work from New York Fed economists. Visit our SSRN host page and look for the “Subscribe to eJournal” prompt. bit.ly/4aZJ1Gb
The latest from @LibertyStEcon How Shadow Banking Reshapes the Optimal Mix of Regulation By Kinda Hachem >>> nyfed.org/3TIYkMI
OUTLOOK-AT-RISK | JULY 2025 The latest update shows that the estimated conditional distribution of average real GDP growth over the next four quarters remains modestly more concentrated around its mean than the unconditional distribution. nyfed.org/41kwlUL #AMEC
Business Leaders Survey | July Business activity continued to decline in the New York-Northern NJ service sector, though at a slower pace than in recent months. The headline business activity index rose 4 points but remained negative at -9.3. nyfed.org/bls
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING SURVEY The July Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity grew slightly in New York State. The headline general business conditions index climbed 22 points to 5.5. nyfed.org/2T8gCbr
A Danger to Self and Others: Health and Criminal Consequences of Involuntary Hospitalization By Natalia Emanuel, Pim Welle, and Valentin Bolotnyy >>> nyfed.org/4kI6HDk
The latest from @LibertyStEcon Who Lends to Households and Firms? By Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias >>> nyfed.org/40Sspx7
HOME PRICE DATA We track the year-over-year change in home prices across the United States. Our latest update adds data for May 2025. See the data by county >>> nyfed.org/2PmV388
NEW YORK FED STAFF NOWCAST 2025:Q2 → 1.6% 2025:Q3 → 1.8% nyfed.org/3LbPEur #AMEC
Nicola Cetorelli shared perspective on the significant growth of NBFIs and their dependence on banks for funding and liquidity support as a speaker at the #ECBForum on Central Banking 2025. Watch the replay: bit.ly/46DjrYn
ECONOMIC INDICATORS CALENDAR Keep up with key economic data releases from the New York Fed and other data providers. We include links to data sources when available. nyfed.org/3WG3DvL.
SCE | June 2025 Median year-ahead price change expectations increased to 4.2% for gas, to 9.3% for cost of medical care, to 9.1% for the cost of college education, and to 9.1% for rent. Food price expectations remained unchanged at 5.5%. #NYFedCMD nyfed.org/3SQe6pc
SCE | June 2025 Median inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at the three-year-ahead horizon (at 3.0%) and at the five-year-ahead horizon (at 2.6%). nyfed.org/3d8q7l4 #NYFedCMD