Paul Mortimer-Lee
@MortimerleePaul
Independent economist. Research Fellow @NIESRorg Ex-NIESR Deputy Director, ex-@bankofengland , ex- @IMF & ex-@BNPParibas Views = mine (except the wrong ones).
Beyond the Tipping Point: Global Recession Looms open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
FedWatch: July Preview open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
Jerome Powell: Fed Chair Report Card open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
French Budget Blues open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
The Fed Stakes: Runners and Riders open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
Letter: The problem is too much spending, not too little tax via @FT on.ft.com/44EosPc
ECB: Strategy and Regime Change: Was the Shift Justified? open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
Who Created the UK's Fiscal Disaster? open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
He's got to cut rates to bail out the government. Ending QT also has the same objective. The Bank of England currently holds about 23% of the stock of gilts (APF over hilt stock).. So 23% of the government's debt is monetized. Then people are shocked by persistent inflation.
Bailey @bankofengland has been “talking down” inflation & anticipating rate cuts, but inflation expectations appear stubbornly high. Should he be more hawkish? @asentance @MortimerleePaul @afneil @EdConwaySky @faisalislam @FinancialTimes
France: Fiscal Challenges open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
Today's UK GDP numbers, another m/m fall, show that the Reeves - Starmer duo do not understand that hiking taxes rarely delivers growth. They aim to "kick-start" the economy, whereas their policies are giving it a good kicking. Here's a graphic to help them understand.
US Inflation: Why a Slower Tariff Pass-Through Now Than in 2018/2019? open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
Will UK Quantitative Tightening End? open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
Foreign Exporters are Paying the Tariffs open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
Foreign Exporters are Paying the Tariffs open.substack.com/pub/mortimerle…
Why Did Iran's Assessment Change? Iran has every incentive to tell the outside world the damage is greater than reality, while playing it down to the domestic audience. More here... drive.google.com/file/d/1NheRFw…
Britain's Bankrupt Budget Rachel Reeves Spending Review was a Shameless Charade substack.com/@mortimerleepa…
The #Iran #war will spike oil prices higher. The hit to global growth may be modest, only 0.5% off global GDP. But it's more than an already vulnerable global economy can stand, and a global recession beckons. Read more here bit.ly/3T6bNxM @NIESRorg @ChrisGiles…
When the UK Chancellor @RachelReevesMP says the economy is turning a corner, this is what comes to mind. (NB all 571 passengers and crew on the Oceanos were rescued)
Can someone please explain to @RachelReevesMP that current spending on the NHS is not „investment.“