Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
South Asia analyst. Writer of @ForeignPolicy's weekly South Asia Brief. Nonresident Senior Fellow @AsiaPacificFdn. Tweeting in a personal capacity.
A rapidly intensifying Afghan refugee crisis is playing out on the Afghanistan-Iran border. Far too many people are being forced to return to a nation where they don’t want to be—and which is ill-prepared to receive them. This week for @ForeignPolicy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/afg…
The Weekly South Asia Briefing with @MichaelKugelman youtu.be/-lvC8m1It2I?si… via @YouTube
The Taliban are likely to remain in power in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future. Russia’s decision to recognize the regime has only strengthened the Taliban’s prospects for longevity. This week for @ForeignPolicy: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/16/rus…
I’m quoted here: “This can be a shot in the arm for a U.S.-India relationship looking to rebound after a few tough months." reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
If Trump visits Pakistan this year, as suggested by recent reports (would likely be November as Quad summit in India may happen then), would be motivated less by strategic considerations or issues of hyphenation and more by matters like…crypto. We live in interesting times.
I’m quoted here: “Post-revolution honeymoons often don’t last long, and Bangladesh is no exception. The interim government faced massive expectations to restore democracy and prosperity. But this is especially difficult to do as an unelected government….” apnews.com/article/bangla…
The launch of the @NASSCOM US CEO Forum at @IndiainNewYork brought together leaders from tech, policy, and industry to advance the India–US technology partnership. Strategic Techscape: India, the US, and the New Global Order featured Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman, Senior…
Tibet is often overlooked in discussions on India-China relations. But the Dalai Lama succession could jeopardize the modest thaw in bilateral ties playing out in recent months. This week for @ForeignPolicy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/09/dal…
President Trump has signaled an escalation in his campaign against BRICS. Earlier he said members would face a 10% tariff if they take steps to undercut the dollar. Today he said membership alone in BRICS will get you hit with that tariff. More trouble for US-India relations.
This comment comes after his call with Modi several weeks ago during which the Indian PM-according to an Indian gov’t readout-told Trump in a 35-minute conversation that “at no point” during the crisis was there any discussion “at any level” about a trade deal.
#WATCH | US President Donald Trump says, "...We stopped a lot of fights, very, very big one was India and Pakistan. We stopped that over trade. We are dealing with India and Pakistan. We said that we are not going to be dealing with you at all if you are gonna fight. They were…
Bangladesh is one of the first countries to get a tariff notification letter from Trump. Letter says a 35% tariff will kick in August 1 (original tariff was 37%). My understanding is talks were going well-perhaps there’s still scope to avoid the levy if there’s a deal by Aug 1.
India Tonight | Trump threatens 10% extra tariffs as BRICS statement sparks sharp response — Dr Vivek Mishra, Geoff Dennis & Michael Kugelman decode the global fallout. #Trump #BRICS #Tariffs Full Interview: youtube.com/watch?v=cQncu3… @SumitaKareer @viveksans @MichaelKugelman
Several Pakistani delegations have been in DC the last few weeks. The most consequential was arguably the one in town last week to talk trade: It’s reportedly reached an understanding on a deal w/US negotiators, with a 29% reciprocal tariff at stake. dawn.com/news/1922229
Russia is the first to formally recognize the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. China could be next. We’re seeing an apparent fraying of the global consensus that states can pursue their interests in Afghanistan through engagement with the Taliban, without the need for formal ties.
US-India trade talks aren’t just significant for trade. They’re critical for overall bilateral ties, which have hit some bumps. The outcome of the talks could be a bellwether of the partnership’s broader trajectory. This week for @ForeignPolicy: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/02/us-…
My reflections on the India-Pakistan crisis, published as a Q/A w/@ShannonTiezzi in the new magazine issue of @Diplomat_APAC. We discuss what made it different from ‘16/‘19, US role, the China factor, domestic political implications & what’s next. thediplomat.com/2025/06/michae…
