Maverick Equity Research

This is why independent economic/investment research has a future ... 👇 No fear to say/write something, no choosing words, no reluctance, no redacting something cause the boss or whomever said so, or government might do after or any of that matter ...

One more episode in the world of 'freedom of speech' in the finance/banking/economics world ... See tweet below in case you missed it👇 H/T @HayekAndKeynes via Bloomberg

Shall I prepare already to invert again the current pyramid scheme capital structure? While then with the bag holders on the top with the wide base ... and the way fever insiders ultimate equity on the bottom? Capital structures look very symmetrical (at least)😃 $BTC $MSTR

60%-80% Bitcoin drawdowns are common, about every 2 years $BTC $MSTR x.com/Maverick_Equit…

U.S. Equities Valuation via a rare Maverick Chart for 10,000 words - 3 key CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E) measures and related drawdowns: 👉 S&P 500 CAPE (Shiller) = 37.81 = an inch from crossing 38 = only the 3rd time in history & now higher than 98% of historical valuations…

S&P 500 fun stat = Number of Times it Reached All-Time Highs Each Year 👇 2021 madness = 70 2022 = 1 2023 = 0 (2022 bear market recovery) 2024 = 57 times 2025 = 10 times (so far) How many more this year? Give it a guess!

S&P 500 - Consecutive Days Above 200-Day Moving Average since 2005: 2020 = 179 days 2021 = 392 days (madness times) 2022 = 9 days (bear market came to town) 2023 = 248 days (bear market usual recovery) 2024 = 290 days (‘we are so back!’) 2025 = 335 peak (‘we are so back 2.0’),…

S&P 500: Consecutive Days Above 200-Day Moving Average - added also the S&P 500 price/level: 2020 = 179 days 2021 = 392 days (madness times) 2022 = 9 days (bear market came to town) 2023 = 248 days (bear market usual recovery) 2024 = 290 days (‘we are so back!’) 2025 = 335 peak…

Macro chart of the year candidate = How accurate are CPI numbers? 👉 Different Cell Imputation in the CPI = more than 1/3 at 35% ... 👉 Inflation food for thought ... P.S. Maverick Macro Special Report on Inflation is work in progress also besides others … ciao ciao!

S&P 500: consecutive trading days without a 2% decline since 2005 & 1975 + drawdowns + recessions: 👉 currently 64 days without a 2% down days 👉 2025: without the POTUS trade war, we could have had +100 consecutive days 👉 2024: quite a streak with 355 days 👉 2022 drawdown:…

As expected, 'STRC Stock' (''Stretch'') 'to select investors' was oversubscribed ... and massively! 4x to $2B From $500M ... to buy more Bitcoin aka as a 'Treasury Reserve Asset' ... not much to say more ... :) H/T to @Citrini7 for the Bloomberg chart

MicroStrategy, 4 $MSTR charts for 10,000 words! 👉 2024: I took their Capital Raising Target slide (chart 1) and 'modeled' 🙃 it to show what it is without many words (chart 2) = it looks like a Pyramid scheme to me (excuse me for my lack or drawing skills) - the idea was to…

S&P 500 valuation via Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield since 2005 (after CAPE 3 measures, tweet below): 👉 trades below even the -2 Standard Deviation (SD), both on a Market Cap & EV basis, 2.5% and 2.51% 👉 quite some to go for the -1 SD at 3.57% (market cap basis), and 3.12% (EV…

Going Global on Stocks Valuations by Sectors, chart by ManGroup via @MebFaber: 👉 20-23% share of MSCI World sectors trading at 10x EV/Sales (sales jep, not earnings or so) 👉 = basically a return to 2000s Dot-Com heights Good economy, inflation & rates normalisation,…

“An ability to detach yourself from the crowd — I don’t know to what extent that’s innate or to what extent that’s learned — but that’s a quality you need.” Warren Buffett P.S. in case you missed my latest on Berkshire/Buffett: ✍️ Maverick Special Report #4: Warren Buffett's…