Manifold

@ManifoldMarkets

Bet on everything. Get accurate real-time odds on AI, politics, news, and more.

Joined December 2021

446Following

11KFollowers

Manifold Retweeted

JgaltTweets@JgaltTweets · Jul 25

When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad? Median predicted date over time July 2021: 2043 (22 years away) July 2022: 2029 (7 years away) July 2023: 2028 (5 years away) July 2024: 2026 (2 years away) metaculus.com/questions/6728…

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Logan@loganalogy · Jul 20

I'm doing the FOLDED project, a web game from @oscpmentor where you check in every day and compete with other @ManifoldMarkets users to be the last one standing! Daily progress in this thread… 🧵 manifold.markets/post/introduci…

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Mikhail Samin@Mihonarium · Jul 20

I hope these kids with fresh IMO medals keep trading on @ManifoldMarkets for fun instead of wasting their lives working for boring trading firms!

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Manifold@ManifoldMarkets · Jul 19

Crazy, this gets Jimmy’s gold sticker of approval and excellence award. The wall is being throughly penetrated at this point.

AAlexander Wei@alexwei_ · Jul 19

1/N I’m excited to share that our latest @OpenAI experimental reasoning LLM has achieved a longstanding grand challenge in AI: gold medal-level performance on the world’s most prestigious math competition—the International Math Olympiad (IMO).

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Manifold@ManifoldMarkets · Jul 19

Is alchemy real? Maybe.

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