LostFundamentals
@LostFundamental
$TSLA the AUTO OEM! - Dissecting the three major bull case inconsistencies and why 2027 EBIT of $40bn could have ~60% downside. Tweet B1) to B6) & D3), D4) has data you probably have not seen before. Not financial or investment advice. A 23 Tweet🧵
$TSLA The 0DTE crew can’t look further back than a week. If you did you would realize, that since pre-election the stock is still up 50% while 2026E EPS is down 36% and still has 50% downisde best case, so yes let’s call it priced in.
Seeing ALOT of ppl thoroughly convinced that $TSLA will crater from here because of Elon’s new political party. Bulls and bears. Be careful when everyone thinks the same way. Good or bad. In my opinion, this was already starting to get priced in for about a week. Also, there is…
$TSLA - And now Musk has a reason to start dumping stock at ~200x P/E to fund his new political adventure and crusade against members of congress.
VOX POPULI VOX DEI 80% voted for a new party
$PLTR now on 102x 2025E EV/Revenue. This means that for every 1% increase in the price from here the EV/Revenue multiple increases 1x let that sink in.
Since the 7-Apr low 3 months ago $NVDA has basically added a $GOOGL in market cap.
$IONQ - How to make $1bn over night. Unbelievable desperation to raise capital this way. Well done Susquehanna who paid a $200mn premium on the shares bought but gained $1.2bn of value on the warrants received each worth around $32 at 91% Vol, 7y, $99.9 strike.
$TSLA Important to remember that not even Elon thinks Robotaxi will be a great success. And neither do MorganStanley or Goldman Sachs. x.com/LostFundamenta…
But what about Robotaxi / Cybercab the $TSLA bulls will say. Well, it won’t change anything on a 5-10 year view. Here are Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanleys (biggest Tesla bull) projections for the next 3-6 years. By 2030 MS is not even at $1bn revenue and only breakeven EBIT. 6/x
$TSLA Important to remember that the current quarterly EPS (Non-GAAP) earnings power at 1Q-25 gross margins is around $0.24 => $1 of annual EPS assuming ZEV credits are cut in half and selling 400K cars per Q. Still on 293x P/E in the pre-market.
$TSLA - Source Bloomberg,quoting Musks X posts. *MUSK: BACKING A CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION *MUSK: FOCUS FOR NEXT 12 MONTHS IS ON THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE
NQ (NASDAQ) futures down 30bps could imply $TSLA down 10% as its a 2.7% weight and the rest broadly flat on positive tariff news.
Equities down a bit in early going, but silver and Bitcoin look headed for ATH if trends hold.
There are few things as tiresome as Dalton’s fact less emphatic bull drivel. The booming energy business grew MWh 2% y-o-y in 2Q, and in 1Q Energy $ASP declined 30% y-o-y.
How do I know $TSLA is going to skyrocket soon? Because many bulls have become a bunch of babies Like holy fook, Tesla just launched Robotaxi, energy is booming, and deliveries are returning If you can’t handle the heat, stay out of the kitchen…because Tesla is cooking
$TSLA - Is this how they boosted US sales in June? Low milage effectively new cars sold to 3rd party used car dealers. Wonder what that does to 2Q gross margins? @BradMunchen
$TSLA – Something does not add up with 2Q-25 deliveries in the US. Tesla reported 384k deliveries around 30k ahead of expectations. As we know China (133k) and EU (55k) & ROW (46k) to a high degree, the implied “plug” is US deliveries at ~150k! A 🧵1/8
$TSLA - do the bulls have any dreams left now? Elon Musk's Tesla Has Halted The Production Of Its Humanoid Robot Optmius Amid Redesign Plans: Report benzinga.com/markets/tech/2…
