Joseph Lavorgna

Why are economists still saying tariffs are seeping into the inflation data when it is simply not evident in the aggregated data? For example, over the last 12 months through June, imported goods prices from China are down 2.2%, deflating at a faster pace than February (-0.7%)…

Under President Trump’s leadership, we are delivering results for working Americans. While the Biden administration left the bottom 50% behind, we’re focused on helping Main Street rise alongside Wall Street. This administration is committed to prosperity for all.

Business equipment production is up nearly 17% annualized through the first half of the year—the fastest pace since 1997. This CapEx Comeback was jumpstarted by the OBBB, which made investment spending retroactive to Inauguration Day. Higher capital investment drives…

Thanks to @POTUS’s pro-growth, America First agenda, we’re seeing a CapEx Comeback. Business equipment production jumped 11% annualized in Q2 after a huge 23% gain in Q1 — the strongest back-to-back growth since 1997. CapEx is up 16.6% in the first half of 2025, signaling a…

The latest @USTreasury data for May show record buying of long-term U.S. securities which provides more evidence (not that any was needed) that the U.S. is the ultimate destination for investment. President Trump’s ability to get trillions of dollars of future capital commitments…

What a great combination of numbers! Much stronger than expected retail sales and weaker than expected import prices. Strong growth and low inflation the hallmark of President Trump’s first administration returns.

The producer price index confirmed yesterday’s tame consumer price index. Inflation is trending lower! Still looking for the alleged tariff price effects as the Treasury collects record tariff revenues.

Today’s inflation report proves that tariffs are not inflationary. However, tariffs are a huge revenue source! They accounted for nearly all of the record large $27 billion June budget surplus (biggest since June 2015 excluding any timing shifts). Remember that when the…

The June CPI rounded up to 0.3%, in line with market expectations after four consecutive spectacularly tame inflation reports. Moreover, there is little if any evidence of tariff pass-thru, and the cost of shelter (a big cost to U.S. families) continues to rapidly slow.…

Remember that “official” Congressional Budget Office forecasts do not include tariffs. However, when the CBO included them in a separate analysis, it estimated the Treasury would collect nearly $2 trillion dollars over the next 10 years.

Treasury posts unexpected surplus in June as tariff receipts surge cnbc.com/2025/07/11/tre…

The #CPI has surprised to the downside four months in a row, rising at just a 1.4% annualized rate! Will the next report make it five months in a row in which the inflation rate continues to slow?

The One Big Beautiful Bill strengthens small businesses and Made-in-America investments by offering immediate deductions for new equipment, tax incentives for building U.S. factories, instant R&D write-offs, and interest expense deductions.

Uncertainty around tax policy has been a headwind to growth as seen in the NFIB small business survey. But now that the One Big Beautiful Bill is law, small business activity to set to surge just as it did under the first Trump Administration

What is remarkable so far is the fact that not only has the cost of imported goods not risen (completely the opposite of what mainstream economists had predicted) but that the cost of imported goods has fallen. The inflation rate for these products has been negative!

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The surge in hiring among state and local gov't pushed total gov't job gains back up in Jun; even still, we're seeing the reprivatization of the labor market in real time as overall job growth trends away from gov't and to productive activity:

The passage of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill has set the stage for the next golden age as we prepare to celebrate the 250th year of our great nation. Thanks to President Trump’s visionary leadership, Speaker Johnson and House Republicans, working with Leader Thune and Senate…

The CBO is wrong: Without this bill, we would face the largest tax hike in history and the CBO would project 1.8% growth. Even with full expensing for manufacturing equipment and historic tax relief, the CBO still projects only 1.8% growth. If you turn up the growth…

President @realDonaldTrump’s blue collar boom is just getting started. A nearly 2% surge in Q2 2025 private sector hours worked points to a large rebound in GDP, laying a solid foundation for an upcoming second half economic surge.