Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. Defense analysis with a focus on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.
For folks who want to find me on Bluesky, similar handle: MichaelKofman.bsky.social
It’s no exaggeration that Ukrainian public opinion is in an absolute firestorm after the parliament today approved a law essentially dismantling independent anti-corruption agencies, just days after SBU raided key investigators. The law isn’t enacted until Zelensky signs it — and…
Good thread for those following Iran.
In-Depth Analysis of Israel’s Strategic Blow to Iran’s Missile Capabilities. A Mega Thread 🧵 Operation "Rising Lion" had two goals: stopping a nuclear breakout and neutralizing the ballistic missile threat posed by Iran. This analysis will focus on the latter: <<<
Недавно герой этой войны Роберт Броуди (он же «Мадьяр») выступил на военной конференции в Висбадене. Его речь ошеломила многих. Для Twitter это немного длинновато, но определенно стоит прочитать. "В украинской армии меня называют Мадьяром. Я полевой командир пилотов боевых…
"In the end Bakhmut fortress fell. The toll would undermine Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, which also ended in failure. 'It was a mistake to stay in Bakhmut so long,' said a senior Ukrainian official involved with military planning." @ChristopherJM ft.com/content/4d6114…
Giving credit where it is due. There is a good deal of positive sentiment in Ukraine about this interceptor. If employment can be scaled, alongside similar systems, then it can help answer the challenge posed by Russian OWA drones.
Ekonomichna pravda reports that the interceptor UAV made by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt's Swift Beat company is responsible for approximately 90% of Shahed OWA that are downed by UAVs. epravda.com.ua/oborona/milyar…
Ekonomichna pravda reports that the interceptor UAV made by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt's Swift Beat company is responsible for approximately 90% of Shahed OWA that are downed by UAVs. epravda.com.ua/oborona/milyar…
Updated map showing Russian advances on the Novopavlivka, Kostiantynivka, and Lyman fronts. deepstatemap.live/en#11/49.05587…
Updated map showing Russian advances on the Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad fronts. Russian forces continue to advance north of Myrnohrad, threatening Ukrainian logistics, and the grey zone is only 12km to Dobropillia. deepstatemap.live/en#11/48.32156…
How bad is the reaction to this new law in Ukrainian social media? People are openly calling for demonstrations - not anonymous bots, but relatively well-known figures. It’s the first time I’ve seen such an idea gain support. Not a good sign for Zelensky's administration
"Shame!" shouted many Ukrainian lawmakers as a majority formed from Zelensky's ruling party, pro-Russian oppo bloc & Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna voted to, in effect, dismantle Ukraine's independent anticorruption institutions. My story on a grim day: ft.com/content/21cf3d…
🧵A lengthy thread here on today's news of searches and arrests in Ukraine and what the various parties involved as well as civil society and Kyiv's Western backers see happening.
Secret is out. @StefanishynaO will be Ukraine’s next ambassador to the US. Zelensky has now confirmed. Until Washington approves her, she will serve as Special Envoy of the President of Ukraine for the Development of Cooperation with the United States of America. Stefanishyna has…
Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @EvansRyan202 to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb4s…
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine - 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. Our team took a brief look at the Shahed numbers and noted the following trends and figures🧵:
Ukraine & Israel demonstrated how $1K drones can wipe out $100M capes. In @ForeignAffairs @mchorowitz @JoshuaASchwartz & I argue the US must build a high-low mix—scaling cheap, autonomous platforms alongside exquisite systems—to stay lethal in future wars foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
As Ukraine marked Naval Forces Day, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet started the morning fending off a joint air and sea drone attack on its base in Novorossiysk. Early footage shows no major damage. Our team reviewed satellite imagery from the day before, here’s what we know🧵:
On 5 July, Ukrainian forces carried out a strike on the Borysoglebsk airfield in Russia. Reports indicate that a depot with glide bombs, a trainer aircraft, and possibly other aircraft were hit. Our team has conducted a brief analysis of imagery a fire map - here’s what we found:
A thread of threads. 20 misconceptions about the Revolutionary War (or American War of Independence). Americans (proud to be one) are often quite ill-informed about the military struggle which led to our independence from Great Britain. This isn't your father's rev war. 1/25
Source has just confirmed to me a list of what the US withheld fm Ukraine w/o warning: From Eu depots Missiles AIM-7 x 92 PAC-3 MSE x 30 AGM-114 Hellfire x 142 GMLRS x 252 Stinger MANPADS x 25 AT-4 grenade launchers x 125 From US depots 155 mm rounds (M795) x 8,496
The latest Russia Contingency is out. Steve Kotkin joins me for an interesting conversation on the Russia-Ukraine war, state of play, recent negotiations, offering a historically informed view on these subjects. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/therus…
Army Wants New Armor To Protect From Overhead Drone Attacks On Its Tracked Vehicles With the threat of drones rapidly changing the realities of warfare, the Army finally requests overhead armor on 1,500 tracked vehicles. Story: twz.com/land/army-want…