Jesse Kobernick
@JesseKobernick
corporate attorney | endeavoring for low time preference | @DukeLaw @UCLA | bitcoin
Correct. The buyer of $MSTY is not interested in a 9-10% yield, regardless of how “over-collateralized” the issuer is.
MSTY holders aren’t swapping their shares for STRC The yields aren’t comparable even though STRC’s NAV stability is attractive But there have been significant outflows from MSTY the past few weeks Where is the money probably going? Probably ULTY Since the prospectus change…
Not enough focus on #bitcoin's CEO suppressing the price by running the ATM every 10 minutes.
The disagreement on assets like $MSTR might be boiled down to a difference in time preference.
Didn't @Strategy pause the common ATM from ~May to ~July? Small sample size, but what happened to mNAV and $MSTR/bitcoin price movement? @ryQuant The discussion in Josh's spaces yesterday suggested the common ATM never stopped. h/t @TheUnburntBush
If you want the market to place the appropriate multiple on Strategy’s preferred treasury operations, One must be willing to allow the price of the common security rise to meet the price of the marginal SHAREHOLDER who is willing to sell, not the issuing corporation determining…
It did feel like a low point for sentiment on BTCTC twitter today.
It's mind-blowing how low social sentiment is right now despite BTC continually making new ATHs. The world is asleep on crypto right now. We are definitely NOT at the top, which would be accompanied with euphoria and a high social risk score. Keep riding the bull! 🐂
BRRR: US Liquidity just re-entered the growth phase. The Fed, Treasury and RRP markets are juicing markets.
Last week $IBIT traded just over 300 million shares. 100 million shares (56,000 BTC) were sold "at the bid" making it the second largest weekly delta in history. The fact that #bitcoin is still trading ~ $119k with strong ETF selling pressure is a meaningful signal of ETF…
Checkmatey is actually trending in a generally bullish direction on BTC treasury companies as he previously saw $MSTR going to 1 mNAV. 🤷♂️
MSTR (yes) and MTPLF (maybe) have the most potential by far of escape velocity, due to their unique circumstances in the US and Japan. Very hard for me to construct a similar case with the remainder of the long tail. There might be a couple, but hundreds...yeh, can't see it.
This was a great conversation between @BitcoinPierre and @RealJimChanos on BTC treasury companies and mNAV. Well worth your time to consider their arguments. open.spotify.com/episode/1mfhkj…
The unique ability for $MTPLF to sell cash-secured puts against 5% of its capital deployed is underrated. Based on research reports, reported income and interviews with Simon this year, a conservative guess at revenue here looks something like 0.4% to 0.5% in income against…
Banks commonly trade under 1.5 price/book ratio and sometimes close to 1. I’m not sure this is a comparison that BTC treasury companies want to make.
Bitcoin treasury companies tend to trade at a premium to their bitcoin NAV just like banks tend to trade at a premium to their book value. JPM trades at ~2.4x book value. MSTR trades at ~1.9x NAV. Banks keep issuing more loans and treasury companies keep buying more bitcoin.
The volume of 3350.T on the Tokyo Stock Exchange compared to the U.S. OTC listing makes me think that English Twitter commentary may not have much impact on price right now.
Currently Fidelity and Charles Schwab (most of these are representing US dominance client holders) have climbed up to be the largest holder (total 21.39%) of Metaplanet. MTPLF (US OTC ticker) daily volume is only 1/8 size of 3350 (Japanese TSE listing). Avg daily vol/shares…
No one cared when #bitcoin hit $50k or $75k or $100k. Bitcoin is around $120k, and no one outside of bitcoin land cares. No one will care at $200k or $500k or $1M. A weird thing we just need to get used to.
When you’ve studied MSTR and MetaPlanet, it’s tough to see a need to look at other LBEs.
おはプラネット！
Which banks are issuing securities backed lines of credit (SBLOCs) against private company stock?
I pay attention to @caprioleio's words given the strong historical performance of his fund (a quant/algo-based fund that focuses on BTC and crypto). He's been at it for a while.
If returns are just a fraction of prior cycles, Bitcoin has not even entered the exponential phase yet.