Jacob

Used k-NN regression to simulate expected attack angle based on pitch characteristics to see which hitters' attack angles are merely a result of pitch selection. Comment some hitters to see the comparison of their distributions

Matt Svanson has a .199 wOBAcon vs LHB despite no offspeed. He’s among the best LD avoiders and has the blueprint to induce whiffs. He also threw his hardest cutter of the year yesterday at 95.2 mph Hoping he gets higher-leverage looks after the break

Since this thread, Pallante has a 2.22 ERA in 28.1 IP🎯 What’s changed: • RHB FF Zone% in hitters counts from 80%➡️65%, SLG down from .800 to .111 • LHB FF usage ⬇️15%, tiny velo boost, back to whiffs + weak contact • Both breakers getting LHB whiffs, great sign as supinator

I really like Matt Svanson’s arsenal. It features a hard sweeper, heavy SSW sinker, and bridge cutter His supination bias may prohibit him from developing a quality offspeed but his lower arm angle could help w/ depth. 2.72 xERA, .282 xwOBAcon in 18 IP

Here’s what I wrote about Nick Kurtz in my Cardinals draft preview in December 2023. I love Wetherholt, but…

BP on Draft: Reviewing the National League by Michael Donodeo, Jacob Edelman (@JacobE_STL), and Jarrett Seidler (@jaseidler) baseballprospectus.com/prospects/arti…

It feels like the Cardinals have much more success with east-west pitchers like O’Brien and Svanson. This could also mainly be because they don’t really have arms with high verts and just opt for low slots

The three-true-outcome approach (BB/K/HR) has been on the general uprise. This season, Yohel Pozo has a 11.1% TTO%. Here's a plot of the league's TTO% over time, compared to Pozo's 2025 TTO% as a baseline:

The Cardinals have 4 of the 33 players in MLB who have a higher wOBAcon on chase contact than in the zone. - Lars Nootbaar .420 vs .330 - Yohel Pozo .380 vs .340 - Nolan Arenado .330 vs .298 - Masyn Winn .352 vs .341 Pretty strange but the Cardinals usually prioritize contact

Yohel Pozo ranks 2nd in all of baseball in InPlay% after Luis Arraez. He ranks 1st in Chase%, but 5th in ChaseCon%. He also has the 2nd lowest Zone%. This is genuinely one of the weirdest profiles I’ve ever seen — and it’s working

The Baseball Prospectus MLB draft board is out now. Had a great time contributing on this piece, with the draft only a few weeks away baseballprospectus.com/prospects/arti…

The 2025 MLB Draft Big Board by Michael Donodeo, Jacob Edelman (@JacobE_STL), and Jarrett Seidler (@jaseidler) baseballprospectus.com/prospects/arti…

Spencer Jones leads the minor leagues in my estimated contact quality metric and was just promoted to AAA. It’s a relatively rudimentary xwOBAcon estimate that uses LD%, GB%, FB%, SLGcon, and HR%, and Jones excels across the board

Jonathan Aranda splits Home: .369/.438/.523 (.961 OPS) Road: .275/.380/.431 (.812 OPS) I’ll take my losses on Mead but I think this pick turned out pretty well

Cardinals hitters in this series vs RHP: .310/.359/.662, .669 xSLG, .455 xwOBA LHP: .083/.102/.104, .303 xSLG, .222 xwOBA The Cards were first in baseball in OPS vs lefties just three years ago.

His BABIP isn’t moving because he can’t stop hitting homers.

Brendan Donovan’s HR just now: • 109.4 MPH exit velocity (career best) • 76 MPH bat speed (szn best on HR) Donovan’s xSLG on aerial contact is the best in his career and results are following

Lars Nootbaar's struggles haven't gone unnoticed for the #STLCards, as he's posted a 52 wRC+ over the last two weeks. After digging into some data, I think we've seen the best from Noot already🧵 1/11

Joshua Baez is breaking out I ran a very simple multiple linear regression on xwOBAcon for minor-league data. Baez’ .422 est xwOBAcon ranks in the 93rd percentile He also has 10 HR & 26 SB