Grey Value Management
@GreyValue
Professional investor who (still) believes in rigorous research and analysis. Views, opinions, mistakes are my own - and not investment advice. JD/MBA.
You're going to read a lot of guff arguing that Couche-Tard's failed bid for Seven & i represents a problem with Japanese corporate governance. Ignore it. It was a bad deal, executed poorly -- and Couche-Tard's own communications reveal how. My latest: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗚𝗼 𝘽𝙤𝙤𝙢 Another great piece on the Brightline bond implosion from @MartinZBraun, @ElizaHannon, and Reshmi Basu (link below). As discussed, bond investors were apparently surprised when an interest payment this month was missed. One…
𝗠𝘂𝗻𝗶 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 @hgillers at the @WSJ has done an excellent piece (link below) on the significant but underappreciated risks lurking in the $400 BN muni junk-bond market. 𝗕𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹…
𝗨𝗽 𝗜𝗻 𝗦𝗺𝗼𝗸𝗲 𝘙𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘤𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘵 𝘣𝘪𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨? It couldn't lose - nearly 18 million Americans admitted to using the herb on a daily basis, overtaking the near-15 million daily drinkers. The combined value of Curaleaf,…
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗮 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻? (1) The companies that deliver on earnings generally see very little price appreciation, and (2) The companies that miss earnings estimates are pretty severely punished (2nd chart…
𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗗𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀? @AllisonSchrager recently wrote a very good piece for @business (link below) regarding a persistent paradox: 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗵𝘂𝗴𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁, 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹…
"Train left station three seconds too early" No joke: Meitetsu tells its customers that they are sorry for causing inconveniences, because the 19:10 train leaving Mikawa-Takahama station left at approximately 19:09, three seconds too early! meitetsu.co.jp/info/1286436_8…
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲'𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗗𝗶𝗺 I had an interesting conversation with @jesslerner at @TheBondBuyer regarding the @GoBrightline's recent missed interest payment. I doubt anyone familiar with the situation was surprised by the deferral. Even the conservative…
🚨 Japan’s bond market is spiraling into chaos. Yields are exploding. Liquidity is vanishing. Trust is evaporating. Let me break down what’s happening in Japan and how this affects the US. (Save this thread)
And less than a week after my post on the Brightline deferring a payment on their muni bonds... wlrn.org/killer-train-b… #investing #stocks #bonds #munibonds #municipalbonds
𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀: 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱 @Spencerjakab shared some interesting insights re. corporate earnings "surprises" in today's @WSJ (link below). The S&P 500’s “surprise ratio” - the share of the benchmark’s companies reporting…
𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗖𝗵𝗼𝗸𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗧𝗔𝗖𝗢? @Unmack1 raised some interesting points in his recent piece for @Breakingviews (link below). Global stock markets have now come to expect that Trump Always Chickens Out* from imposing high tariffs, which is…
𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗨𝗽𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 Last quarter, for the first time since early 2021, the volume of high-grade downgrades exceeded upgrades. In the second quarter, around $94 BN of high-grade US debt was…
𝗪𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿? The Reuters Econ World podcast just did an episode on the Shadow Fed (the idea of a potential informal or unofficial role at the Federal Reserve, where an individual would influence monetary policy without holding an…
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝘂𝗻𝗶 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 Brightline Trains Florida plans to defer a July 15 interest payment on its 10% and 12% unrated tax-exempt bonds - 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙙. The deferral isn't…
Apollo just released a 42 page deck on the state of student loans Some fascinating charts 🧵 1/ Total number of people with federally managed student loans have now hit 45 million