Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
@Filapek
Here to share my own research & analysis, and to promote @FNArena. Expect to be challenged in your convictions, assuming you're sufficiently open-minded ;)
"Global financial markets are looking increasingly frothy, and as President Trump’s August 1st deadline for finalising tariff deals approaches, investors should brace for a sharp rise in volatility." Nigel Green, CEO deVere Group #investing #equities #XJO #stocks
Short sellers in US targeting #healthcare and #consumerdiscretionary #investing #equities #stocks
Citi on Newmont Corp $NEM: "NEM reported 2Q25 EPS of $1.43/sh vs Citi $1.27/sh and EBITDA of $3.0bn vs Citi $2.8bn. Gold production was 1.5moz from core mines (+12% YoY - adj. for divestments). "1H production from core mines was 2.8moz, leaving the company well on track for…
Citi on Whitehaven Coal $WHC: "Good cost performance for FY25 unit costs at ~$139/t vs guidance of $140-$155/t. JunQ saleable prodn (100%) of 7.76mt, up 5% on MarQ and 9% higher than Citi expectations. "ROM coal prodn (100%) of 10.6mt in JunQ up 15%. Cost guidance for FY26 to…
"Federated Hermes’ macro team is sticking with our overweight position in equities and hanging tight; in our experience, in bull markets, you don’t sell rallies; you buy dips. "We see a rotation into some of the market laggards as more likely, than a full-blown market…
RBC Capital on Bapcor $BAP: "A challenging trading update for Bapcor with a miss to consensus earnings, sales pressure across all segments and a balance sheet review. "We believe the market will remain cautious given trading conditions remain uncertain & FY30 targets suggest a…
Macquarie: "We expect the bank sector to underperform as macroeconomic fundamentals realign with valuations. "Our econometric model indicates that while the macro backdrop remains broadly favourable, it currently signals a potential ~15%+ underperformance. "In particular…
Citi: "We left the conference call incrementally more bearish on Bapcor, noting i) there was no colour on why three members of the board stepped down, ii) we suspect the sales weakness in Retail could persist over 1H FY26 given it is a function of a promotional change (all-store…
Cit: "While we thought conditions were tough at Bapcor, today's update suggests conditions are significantly more challenging than expected. "Taking into account three unexpected board changes, a deterioration in trading into year-end, and new accounting complexities/FY24…
RBC Capital on Woodside $WDS: "June quarter revenue and sales volume was a beat against our forecast and Visible Alpha consensus, but in line at the production level. "Sales revenue was broadly flat qoq after lower realised LNG, oil and condensate pricing offset a strong +8%…
RBC Capital on Paladin: "Despite the strong quarter on quarter growth in production at Langer Heinrich, Paladin was sold off today due to its FY26 guidance coming in below market expectations. "On a positive note , FY26 guidance still points to hitting peak production by the…
My Weekly Insights this week zooms in the share market's extreme polarisation in favour of larger cap companies which is not new and neither has it been ASX-specific fnarena.com/index.php/2025… #investing #XJO #stocksinfocus #equities #allweatherman @FNArena
Citi on Paladin $PDN: "Strong quarterly production print should be a relief to the market. "However, Q4-FY25 realised pricing and FY26 cost guidance may disappoint." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing
Citi on Iluka $ILU: "JunQ revenue of $289m was broadly in-line with Citi and up 15% on MarQ. "Total Z/R/ZR sales of 133kt were 5% below Citi but up 14% on MaQ. Average Z/R/SR realisation of $2,110/t was 3% below Citi and up 1% on MarQ. "ILU has not provided Z price or sales…
So... if the Australian economy is mostly honky dory, why I am seeing so many consumer discounts being offered? Some days my inbox is literally being flooded with special discounts for wine, clothing, eating out, golf balls, holidays, etc. Is the economy just as polarised as…
Morgan Stanley: "...we don’t think that American Exceptionalism is necessarily over. But we do think a new investment regime is approaching. "If American Exceptionalism was premised on tailwinds like negative real interest rates and outsized policy accommodation, we think…
Citi: "Iron ore equities have experienced a strong rebound in risk appetite from March low levels. The risk-on trade reflects renewed interest in iron ore with China imports up despite weakening China steel production. "Citi remains cautious on this iron ore rebound; steel…
RBC Capital on Praemium $PPS: "Praemium's 4Q25 saw a continuation of elevated outflows which management have highlighted were impacted by ongoing, albeit temporary, headwinds in Powerwrap and Onevue. "We see signs of improvement emerging with gross inflows accelerating and…
RBC Capital on Qoria $QOR: "We are updating our model for QOR following the release of its preliminary FY25 results and FY26 guidance. "Overall, we upgrade our next three-year EBITDA estimates (starting FY25) by +6%/+1%/+6%. "As a result, we increase our rounded PT to…
RBC Capital on Amotiv: "AOV have provided a FY25 trading update which was in-line with market expectations and qualitative guidance. "Alongside the update, AOV announced a non-cash impairment for APG (c.$180-$190 million) while highlighting a more cautious growth outlook for…