Erik Green 林艾力

Latest analysis with @MeiaNouwens finds a significant number of CCP actors are engaged in legal initiatives that attempt to further cross-Strait integration and could provide legal justification for future actions against Taiwan. iiss.org/online-analysi…

In recent years China has focused on developing its space cooperation with African countries. It currently has access to four TT&C stations in the region and Yuan Wang vessels have made port calls in South Africa. In South Asia, Pakistan has cooperated extensively with China to…

China’s space capabilities have also been improved through its extensive space diplomacy, particularly with countries in Africa and Latin America. This has included space partnerships with at least 16 countries in Africa and 11 countries in Latin America. Explore the latest…

Almost one year after the Kinmen Model was first promoted, the PLA and CCG carried out a large-scale training exercise around Taiwan labelled Strait Thunder-A on 1–2 April 2025, which consisted of multiple drills focusing on securing ‘key area and chokepoint control’. Immediately…

To fill potential gaps in its global TT&C coverage, China has a fleet of missile and satellite-tracking and telemetry vessels. Along with a newly commissioned Liao Wang-1 vessel, China has four Yuan Wang vessels which have made port calls in Cape Town, Durban, Hambantota, Papeete…

More excellent analysis and original research by @Erik_Green8 on the application and evolution of China’s Kinmen Model.

A Taiwan conflict 'would also affect non-Chinese banks as firms and individuals would become unable to pay back their loans and Chinese firms may default on debts to foreign banks...UK banks have the largest exposure to China'. stlouisfed.org/-/media/projec…

Since the Kinmen Model was announced, the CCG and PLA have practised different forms of maritime control, and the model has evolved as China has experimented with its application. Read the latest IISS analysis by Erik Green (@Erik_Green8): ➡ go.iiss.org/4m1c29W

After a year of patrols around Kinmen, China has integrated elements of the Kinmen Model to redesign its plans for a military campaign against Taiwan and include a greater role for the Chinese Coast Guard. Read the latest IISS analysis by Erik Green (@Erik_Green8): ➡…

Images from today's combat maneuverability drill held in Kinmen. CM-21 armored vehicles and Javelin missile systems from one of Kinmen Defense Command's mechanized infantry battalions were used to simulate the seizure of key terrain. 📸: MNA

China’s capabilities related to becoming a space power have undergone significant improvement in the last 20 years. This map illustrates China’s nine domestic TT&C stations, four satellite launch sites and five sea-launch barges which it has used in various locations to launch…

Today, the Kinmen Defense Command conducted defense-in-depth operations in Lieyu, by the Kinmen Bridge. CM-21 armored vehicles were utilized to practice the ROCA's ability to respond to an enemy landing/advance. 📷 : MNA

Overnight, the ROCA’s Kinmen Defense Command, along with nine garrison and artillery battalions from Taiwan's outlying islands, conducted a joint nighttime live-fire coastal firepower suppression drill. M60A3 and M41D tanks, CM21 and CM22 armored vehicles, M1 240mm and 105mm…

My latest article for @IISS_org examines the lessons that China appears to have learned from its Coast Guard incursions around Kinmen, and how they have led the PLA to redesign its plans for a naval campaign against Taiwan. iiss.org/online-analysi…

Interesting article by @cnmediaproject providing a valuable and data-driven counter-point to the argument that Xi is losing power. chinamediaproject.org/2025/07/10/vis…

China announces a further 12 policy measures to boost financial 'cross-strait integration' between Fujian and Taiwan. These were devised by the PBC and SAFE. Significant as local leaders in Kinmen have supported moves for further financial cross-strait integration with Xiamen.

China yesterday announced that it had unilaterally activated the W121 connecting path, which begins in Dongshan to Flight M503 route. Our @IISS_org Charting China graphic in January showed the effect of China opening W122/123 routes as part of its lawfare strategy against Taiwan.

In June the same 4 CCG vessels entered Kinmen's restricted waters twice on the same day (19th) and then again once the following day (20th). Something similar has only happened once before when the same 4 vessels entered Kinmen's waters once on 30/12 and then twice on 31/12.

UK China Policy has prev failed as it was built on incorrect assumptions about the CCP's future trajectory. Now analysts/press are spreading unfounded/v likely wrong speculation that we've reached peak Xi. This has to be challenged before it negatively affects UK policy-making.

are these rules a response to something? Maybe. on the "no" side: the intra-Party rules 5YP from 2023 mentions them; types of rules on the distribution of power are notoriously difficult - takes a while (been talk about this since ~2018) on the "yes" side: why now?

Politburo readouts are definitely getting shorter, it seems ... Today's meeting officially only focused on deliberating the "Regulations on the Work of the CCP Central Committee’s Decision-Making and Deliberation Coordination Bodies" it also discussed "other matters"